Value bet: Beira-Mar to win @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBeira-Mar to win ✗57% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓66% · fair 1.52
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.50
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗22% · fair 4.52
Beira-Mar vs Machico preview and prediction
The match
The Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group B sees Beira-Mar take on Machico on Sunday 23 August, kicking off at 11:00 (WAT). Beira-Mar are 9th with 7 points from 8 games (in the bottom half), while Machico sit 2nd on 16 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Beira-Mar's last 5: DWDLD Most recently they drew with Sanjoanense 1–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Machico's last 5: DDWLW Most recently they drew with Estrela Calheta 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Machico arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.6 goals: 1.1 for Beira-Mar and 0.5 for Machico. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Beira-Mar to win at 1.95 – 57% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.50, above our fair price of 1.46, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Beira-Mar 1–0 Machico. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Beira-Mar57%fair 1.75 · @1.95
Draw21%fair 4.66 · @2.95
Machico21%fair 4.66 · @3.75
1.64Expected goals
1.14Beira-Mar xG
0.50Machico xG
34%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–022%
0–019%
2–013%
1–111%
0–110%
2–16%
From our goals model: Beira-Mar 1.1 – 0.5 Machico expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Beira-Mar to win✗
57%
1.75
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
54%
1.85
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Beira-Mar / FT Beira-Mar✗
30%
3.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
22%
4.52
–
Form
Beira-Mar – last 6
DWDLDL
16 Aug
@ Sanjoanense
1–1
D
25 Jul
@ Tondela
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs Cinfães
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ Florgrade
0–1
L
8 Mar
vs Leça
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ Vila Real
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Machico – last 6
DDWLWW
15 Aug
vs Estrela Calheta
0–0
D
25 Jul
@ Maritimo
0–0
D
8 Apr
vs Vilaverdense
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ Camacha
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Bragança
2–0
W
8 Mar
vs Brito
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Beira-Mar and Machico.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Beira-Mar vs Machico?
On our numbers Beira-Mar have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Machico 21%.
How many goals will there be in Beira-Mar vs Machico?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 34% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Beira-Mar vs Machico?
Our predicted score is Beira-Mar 1–0 Machico, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is Beira-Mar vs Machico?
Beira-Mar vs Machico (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group B) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
