Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group A · Portugal

Maria da Fonte

LLDLL
3–1
FT

Ponte da Barca

WWDLL

Maria da Fonte vs Ponte da Barca prediction & analysis

63%
Footrivo pick

Maria da Fonte to win

Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.92 · Won ✓

6/10Rating
1.92Odds

Quick tips for this match

ResultMaria da Fonte to win ✓63% · @1.92
Double chanceEither team to win ✓86% · @1.21
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · @1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.06

Win chances

Maria da Fonte63%fair 1.59 · @1.92
Draw14%fair 7.02 · @3.42
Ponte da Barca23%fair 4.38 · @3.24
2.46Expected goals
1.66Maria da Fonte xG
0.80Ponte da Barca xG
54%Both score
47%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
0–17%

From our goals model: Maria da Fonte 1.7 – 0.8 Ponte da Barca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Maria da Fonte are clear favourites at home with a 63% chance of winning, against 23% for Ponte da Barca.

Maria da Fonte have taken 1 points from their last 6 matches (0W 1D 5L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 2.7 per game. Ponte da Barca have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 0.8 scored and 1.5 conceded. Ponte da Barca come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 2.5 goals (1.7 for Maria da Fonte, 0.8 for Ponte da Barca). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 54%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%).

Our pick is Maria da Fonte to win at a 63% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.92 is better than our fair price of 1.59, so there is value in it.

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultMaria da Fonte to win ✓63%1.591.92 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✓86%1.171.21
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓54%1.861.73
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓71%1.401.25
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗53%1.881.80
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74%1.351.26
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗43%2.32–
Half-time / full-timeHT Maria da Fonte / FT Maria da Fonte ✓36%2.81–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14%7.06–

Form

Maria da Fonte – last 6

LLDLLL
1 Nov@ Montalegre0–2L
25 Octvs Bragança1–2L
11 Oct@ Maia Lidador1–1D
20 Sep@ Paredes1–5L
13 Sepvs SC Braga B0–4L
6 Sep@ Brito1–2L
0.7Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Ponte da Barca – last 6

WWDLLL
1 Novvs Vinhais2–1W
25 Oct@ Montalegre1–0W
11 Octvs Rebordosa0–0D
20 Sepvs Amarante0–2L
13 Sep@ Bragança0–3L
6 Sepvs Os Limianos2–3L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Maria da Fonte and Ponte da Barca.

More Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group A predictions

FT Os Limianos1 SC Braga B1 352441 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.24 ✓ FT Chaves II0 Bragança1 382437 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.25 ✓ FT Rebordosa1 Brito1 662311 1Rebordosa to win 66%@1.66 ✗ FT Tirsense2 Montalegre1 612316 1Tirsense to win 61%@1.77 ✓ FT Vila Meã0 Maia Lidador1 652313 1Vila Meã to win 65%@1.86 ✗ FT Vinhais2 Celoricense4 152065 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 73%@1.23 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Maria da Fonte vs Ponte da Barca?

Our pick is Maria da Fonte to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.92.

Who will win Maria da Fonte vs Ponte da Barca?

On our numbers Maria da Fonte have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Ponte da Barca 23%.

How many goals will there be in Maria da Fonte vs Ponte da Barca?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

When is Maria da Fonte vs Ponte da Barca?

Maria da Fonte vs Ponte da Barca (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group A) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.