Marseille vs Atletico Madrid prediction & analysis
64%
Footrivo pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
1
Value bet: Marseille to win @ 2.86 – our chance 39% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Madrid to win ✓39% · @2.22
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.48
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓8% · fair 12.14
Marseille vs Atletico Madrid preview and prediction
The match
The Friendlies Clubs sees Marseille take on Atletico Madrid on Friday 14 August, kicking off at 16:30 (WAT) at Orange Velodrome.
Form guide
Marseille's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Athletic Club 3–1 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Atletico Madrid's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Manchester City 1–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Marseille arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 1.7 for Marseille and 1.7 for Atletico Madrid. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score in 64% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Marseille 39%, draw 22%, Atletico Madrid 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.48.
Value angle: Marseille to win at 2.86 – 39% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 64% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: Marseille 1–1 Atletico Madrid. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Marseille39%fair 2.58 · @2.86
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.70
Atletico Madrid39%fair 2.55 · @2.22
3.39Expected goals
1.69Marseille xG
1.70Atletico Madrid xG
64%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
1–28%
2–18%
2–27%
0–16%
1–06%
From our goals model: Marseille 1.7 – 1.7 Atletico Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Madrid to win✓
39%
2.55
2.22
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.55
1.48
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
58%
1.71
1.55
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
37%
2.71
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Madrid / FT Atletico Madrid✗
23%
4.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
8%
12.14
–
Form
Marseille – last 6
WWWWLL
9 Aug
vs Athletic Club
3–1
W
30 Jul
vs Nimes
2–1
W
17 May
vs Rennes
3–1
W
10 Apr
vs Metz
3–1
W
5 Apr
@ Monaco
1–2
L
22 Mar
vs Lille
1–2
L
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Atletico Madrid – last 6
LLWLWW
9 Aug
@ Manchester City
1–3
L
1 Aug
@ Manchester United
1–2
L
29 Jul
vs Getafe
4–1
W
24 May
@ Villarreal
1–5
L
17 May
vs Girona
1–0
W
12 May
@ Osasuna
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marseille and Atletico Madrid.
What is the prediction for Marseille vs Atletico Madrid?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Marseille vs Atletico Madrid?
On our numbers Marseille have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Atletico Madrid 39%.
How many goals will there be in Marseille vs Atletico Madrid?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Marseille vs Atletico Madrid?
Our predicted score is Marseille 1–1 Atletico Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Marseille vs Atletico Madrid?
Marseille vs Atletico Madrid (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Orange Velodrome.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Karlovac 19192
Trnje2
Intercity0
Levante II1
UD Logroñés1
Zaragoza2
Reddis2
Saguntino1
Coventry2
Monaco0
Atalanta1
Athletic Club0