Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Spain W to win @ 1.85 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSpain W to win ✓60% · @1.85
Double chanceSpain W or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.28
USA W vs Spain W preview and prediction
The match
Spain W travel to Audi Field in the Friendlies Women on Saturday 10 October (19:30 WAT) to face USA W.
Form guide
USA W's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Brazil W 1–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Spain W's last 4: WWLW Most recently they beat Iceland W 6–1 away. Goals have not been a problem: 3.3 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 0.8 for USA W and 1.8 for Spain W. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: USA W 15%, draw 24%, Spain W 60%.
Safer route: Spain W or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Spain W to win at 1.85 – 60% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Spain W or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: USA W 0–1 Spain W. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
USA W15%fair 6.47 · @3.60
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.10
Spain W60%fair 1.66 · @1.85
2.67Expected goals
0.83USA W xG
1.84Spain W xG
57%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–37%
0–07%
From our goals model: USA W 0.8 – 1.8 Spain W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Spain W to win✓
60%
1.66
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Spain W or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.74
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
Half-time result
Spain W ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Spain W / FT Spain W✓
38%
2.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.28
–
Form
USA W – last 6
WLWLWW
10 Jun
@ Brazil W
1–0
W
6 Jun
@ Brazil W
1–2
L
18 Apr
vs Japan W
3–0
W
15 Apr
vs Japan W
0–1
L
5 Mar
vs Canada W
1–0
W
1 Mar
vs Argentina W
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Spain W – last 4
WWLW
9 Jun
@ Iceland W
6–1
W
5 Jun
vs England W
4–0
W
14 Apr
@ England W
0–1
L
3 Mar
vs Iceland W
3–0
W
3.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between USA W and Spain W.
Our pick is Spain W or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win USA W vs Spain W?
On our numbers USA W have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Spain W 60%.
How many goals will there be in USA W vs Spain W?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for USA W vs Spain W?
Our predicted score is USA W 0–1 Spain W, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is USA W vs Spain W?
USA W vs Spain W (Friendlies Women) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Audi Field.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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