Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.20 – our chance 50% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultHeart Of Midlothian to win ✓69% · @1.25
Double chanceHeart Of Midlothian or draw ✓85% · @1.01
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 6.03
Heart Of Midlothian vs Inverness CT preview and prediction
The match
The League Cup sees Heart Of Midlothian take on Inverness CT on Sunday 16 August, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Tynecastle Park.
Form guide
Heart Of Midlothian's last 5: DWLLL Most recently they drew with Benfica 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Inverness CT's last 5: DDWWW Most recently they drew with Arbroath 0–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Inverness CT arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.8 for Heart Of Midlothian and 0.6 for Inverness CT. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 50%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 2.20 – 50% on our numbers against 45% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 71% chance at odds of 1.45, above our fair price of 1.41, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Heart Of Midlothian 1–0 Inverness CT. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Heart Of Midlothian69%fair 1.45 · @1.25
Draw16%fair 6.14 · @5.40
Inverness CT15%fair 6.80 · @8.25
2.37Expected goals
1.78Heart Of Midlothian xG
0.59Inverness CT xG
50%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–015%
1–110%
0–09%
2–19%
3–09%
From our goals model: Heart Of Midlothian 1.8 – 0.6 Inverness CT expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Heart Of Midlothian to win✓
69%
1.45
1.25
Double chance
Heart Of Midlothian or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.01
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.98
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
2.20 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
1.45
Half-time result
Heart Of Midlothian ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Heart Of Midlothian / FT Heart Of Midlothian✓
42%
2.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
6.03
–
Form
Heart Of Midlothian – last 6
DWLLLW
13 Aug
vs Benfica
1–1
D
9 Aug
vs Dundee Utd
4–0
W
6 Aug
@ Benfica
1–6
L
1 Aug
@ Aberdeen
1–2
L
28 Jul
vs Sturm Graz
0–2
L
24 Jul
@ Raith Rovers
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Inverness CT – last 6
DDWWWD
8 Aug
@ Arbroath
0–0
D
1 Aug
vs Dunfermline
0–0
D
25 Jul
@ Morton
1–0
W
21 Jul
vs ST Johnstone
1–0
W
18 Jul
@ Linlithgow Rose
2–0
W
11 Jul
vs East Fife
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Heart Of Midlothian and Inverness CT.
What is the prediction for Heart Of Midlothian vs Inverness CT?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Heart Of Midlothian vs Inverness CT?
On our numbers Heart Of Midlothian have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Inverness CT 15%.
How many goals will there be in Heart Of Midlothian vs Inverness CT?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Heart Of Midlothian vs Inverness CT?
Our predicted score is Heart Of Midlothian 1–0 Inverness CT, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Heart Of Midlothian vs Inverness CT?
Heart Of Midlothian vs Inverness CT (League Cup) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Tynecastle Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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