Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.85 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAEK Larnaca to win ✓67% · @1.57
Double chanceAEK Larnaca or draw ✓86% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.85
GoalsOver 3.5 goals ✓73% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–3 ✗7% · fair 14.52
Nea Salamis vs AEK Larnaca preview and prediction
The match
AEK Larnaca travel to Ammochostos Stadium in the 1. Division on Sunday 6 September (17:00 WAT) to face Nea Salamis. Nea Salamis are 10th with 8 points from 9 games (in the bottom half), while AEK Larnaca sit 1st on 20 points (top of the table). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Nea Salamis's last 5: DWDWL Most recently they drew with Olympiakos 3–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 3.2 per game.
AEK Larnaca's last 5: WLWLD Most recently they beat Apoel Nicosia 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Nea Salamis arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 5.0 goals: 1.7 for Nea Salamis and 3.3 for AEK Larnaca. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 88% likely and both teams score in 61% of our simulations.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.85 – 61% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was AEK Larnaca to win – a 67% chance at odds of 1.57, above our fair price of 1.50, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Nea Salamis 1–3 AEK Larnaca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nea Salamis14%fair 7.04 · @5.00
Draw19%fair 5.27 · @3.50
AEK Larnaca67%fair 1.50 · @1.57
5.00Expected goals
1.69Nea Salamis xG
3.31AEK Larnaca xG
61%Both score
88%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–37%
1–26%
2–36%
1–46%
2–25%
2–45%
From our goals model: Nea Salamis 1.7 – 3.3 AEK Larnaca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AEK Larnaca to win✓
67%
1.50
1.57
Double chance
AEK Larnaca or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.65
1.85 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
96%
1.04
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
–
Half-time result
AEK Larnaca ahead at half-time✓
54%
1.85
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AEK Larnaca / FT AEK Larnaca✓
48%
2.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–3✗
7%
14.52
–
Form
Nea Salamis – last 6
DWDWLW
28 Aug
@ Olympiakos
3–3
D
14 Aug
vs Krasava Odintsovo
7–2
W
12 Aug
vs Anorthosis
2–2
D
21 Jul
@ Busko-Zdroj
4–0
W
19 Apr
@ Karmiotissa
0–1
L
4 Apr
vs Ayia Napa
3–0
W
3.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
AEK Larnaca – last 6
WLWLDL
29 Aug
vs Apoel Nicosia
3–1
W
8 Aug
vs Omonia Aradippou
0–1
L
30 Jul
@ Beitar Jerusalem
3–2
W
23 Jul
vs Beitar Jerusalem
0–1
L
16 Jul
@ Apollon Limassol
0–0
D
10 Jul
@ Ajax
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nea Salamis and AEK Larnaca.
What is the prediction for Nea Salamis vs AEK Larnaca?
Our pick is AEK Larnaca to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Nea Salamis vs AEK Larnaca?
On our numbers Nea Salamis have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 19% and AEK Larnaca 67%.
How many goals will there be in Nea Salamis vs AEK Larnaca?
We expect about 5.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 88% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nea Salamis vs AEK Larnaca?
Our predicted score is Nea Salamis 1–3 AEK Larnaca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 5.0 goals in total.
When is Nea Salamis vs AEK Larnaca?
Nea Salamis vs AEK Larnaca (1. Division) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Ammochostos Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
