Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Apoel Nicosia to win @ 1.85 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultApoel Nicosia to win ✓61% · @1.85
Double chanceApoel Nicosia or draw ✓81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.04
Apoel Nicosia vs AEL preview and prediction
The match
Apoel Nicosia host AEL in the 1. Division on Sunday 6 September, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at GSP Stadium. Apoel Nicosia are 4th with 17 points from 9 games (in the top four), while AEL sit 3rd on 18 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Apoel Nicosia's last 5: LWDLL Most recently they lost to AEK Larnaca 1–3 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
AEL's last 5: WWDLL Most recently they beat Anorthosis 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
AEL arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.0 for Apoel Nicosia and 1.0 for AEL. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 54%.
Value angle: Apoel Nicosia to win at 1.85 – 61% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Apoel Nicosia or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Apoel Nicosia 1–1 AEL. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Apoel Nicosia61%fair 1.65 · @1.85
Draw20%fair 4.94 · @3.10
AEL19%fair 5.20 · @3.90
3.00Expected goals
1.99Apoel Nicosia xG
1.01AEL xG
54%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–110%
1–010%
2–010%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Apoel Nicosia 2.0 – 1.0 AEL expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Apoel Nicosia to win✓
61%
1.65
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Apoel Nicosia or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Apoel Nicosia ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Apoel Nicosia / FT Apoel Nicosia✓
38%
2.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.04
–
Form
Apoel Nicosia – last 6
LWDLLL
29 Aug
@ AEK Larnaca
1–3
L
16 Aug
@ Anorthosis
3–1
W
8 Aug
vs Kifisia
2–2
D
31 Jul
@ Fortuna Sittard
1–2
L
22 May
@ Pafos
0–2
L
6 May
@ Aris
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
AEL – last 6
WWDLLW
30 Aug
vs Anorthosis
2–0
W
19 Aug
@ Krasava Odintsovo
4–0
W
9 Aug
@ Radomiak Radom
1–1
D
27 Apr
vs Anorthosis
0–1
L
22 Apr
@ Pafos
1–3
L
17 Apr
vs Enosis
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Apoel Nicosia and AEL.
Our pick is Apoel Nicosia or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Apoel Nicosia vs AEL?
On our numbers Apoel Nicosia have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 20% and AEL 19%.
How many goals will there be in Apoel Nicosia vs AEL?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Apoel Nicosia vs AEL?
Our predicted score is Apoel Nicosia 1–1 AEL, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Apoel Nicosia vs AEL?
Apoel Nicosia vs AEL (1. Division) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at GSP Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
