Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.60 – our chance 66% vs 63% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAl-Nassr to win ✓68% · @1.25
Double chanceAl-Nassr or draw ✓87% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗66% · @1.60
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓74% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.85
Al Riyadh vs Al-Nassr preview and prediction
The match
The Pro League sees Al Riyadh take on Al-Nassr on Friday 21 August, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. Al Riyadh are 12th with 12 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Al-Nassr sit 3rd on 28 points (in the top four). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Al Riyadh's last 5: WLWLL Most recently they beat Al Zulfi 2–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Al-Nassr's last 5: WWLLW Most recently they beat Al Diriyah 4–1 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Al-Nassr arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.1 goals: 1.3 for Al Riyadh and 2.8 for Al-Nassr. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score in 66% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Al Riyadh 13%, draw 20%, Al-Nassr 68%.
Both teams to score: yes (66%) at 1.60.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.60 – 66% on our numbers against 63% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Al Riyadh 1–2 Al-Nassr. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Al Riyadh13%fair 7.93 · @10.75
Draw20%fair 5.05 · @5.80
Al-Nassr68%fair 1.48 · @1.25
4.09Expected goals
1.27Al Riyadh xG
2.82Al-Nassr xG
66%Both score
74%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–28%
1–38%
0–27%
0–36%
1–16%
1–46%
From our goals model: Al Riyadh 1.3 – 2.8 Al-Nassr expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Al-Nassr to win✓
68%
1.48
1.25
Double chance
Al-Nassr or draw✓
87%
1.14
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
66%
1.51
1.60 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.09
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.33
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
56%
1.80
1.80
Half-time result
Al-Nassr ahead at half-time✓
53%
1.88
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Al-Nassr / FT Al-Nassr✓
47%
2.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
11.85
–
Form
Al Riyadh – last 6
WLWLLL
17 Aug
@ Al Zulfi
2–0
W
14 Aug
@ Al-Ettifaq
2–4
L
21 May
vs Al Okhdood
1–0
W
4 May
@ Al-Fayha
2–4
L
29 Apr
vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
0–4
L
24 Apr
@ Al-Hazm
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Al-Nassr – last 6
WWLLWD
18 Aug
@ Al Diriyah
4–1
W
15 Aug
vs Al-Fateh
3–0
W
4 Aug
vs Almeria
0–2
L
1 Aug
@ Estrela
2–4
L
21 May
vs Damac
4–1
W
12 May
vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1–1
D
2.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Al Riyadh and Al-Nassr.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Al Riyadh vs Al-Nassr?
On our numbers Al Riyadh have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Al-Nassr 68%.
How many goals will there be in Al Riyadh vs Al-Nassr?
We expect about 4.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Al Riyadh vs Al-Nassr?
Our predicted score is Al Riyadh 1–2 Al-Nassr, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.1 goals in total.
When is Al Riyadh vs Al-Nassr?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Nassr (Pro League) kicks off on Friday 21 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
