Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Nong Bua Pitchaya to win @ 1.91 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNong Bua Pitchaya to win ✓57% · @1.91
Double chanceNong Bua Pitchaya or draw ✓83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.65
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓71% · fair 1.41
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.78
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Satun preview and prediction
The match
Nong Bua Pitchaya host Satun in the Thai League 2 on Saturday 19 September, with kick-off at 13:30 (WAT) at Pitchaya Stadium. Nong Bua Pitchaya are 3rd with 18 points from 10 games (in the top four), while Satun sit 5th on 16 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Nong Bua Pitchaya's last 5: DLWLW Most recently they drew with Uttaradit 2–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game.
Satun's last 3: WWL Most recently they beat Muangthong United 3–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.7 goals: 2.3 for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.3 for Satun. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score in 64% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Safer route: Nong Bua Pitchaya or draw (83%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Nong Bua Pitchaya to win at 1.91 – 57% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Nong Bua Pitchaya or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.21, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2–1 Satun. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nong Bua Pitchaya57%fair 1.77 · @1.91
Draw26%fair 3.81 · @3.10
Satun17%fair 5.80 · @3.40
3.67Expected goals
2.34Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
1.33Satun xG
64%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
2–07%
2–26%
1–06%
From our goals model: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.3 – 1.3 Satun expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nong Bua Pitchaya to win✓
57%
1.77
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Nong Bua Pitchaya or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.57
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Nong Bua Pitchaya ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nong Bua Pitchaya / FT Nong Bua Pitchaya✓
39%
2.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.78
–
Form
Nong Bua Pitchaya – last 6
DLWLWW
16 Sep
@ Uttaradit
2–2
D
12 Sep
@ Muangthong United
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Kasetsart FC
2–0
W
3 May
@ Police Tero
1–2
L
5 Apr
vs Khon Kaen United
4–2
W
28 Mar
vs Police Tero
6–3
W
2.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Satun – last 3
WWL
15 Sep
vs Muangthong United
3–0
W
12 Sep
@ Songkhla
3–1
W
6 Sep
vs Kanchanaburi
2–4
L
2.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Satun.
What is the prediction for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Satun?
Our pick is Nong Bua Pitchaya or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Satun?
On our numbers Nong Bua Pitchaya have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Satun 17%.
How many goals will there be in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Satun?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Satun?
Our predicted score is Nong Bua Pitchaya 2–1 Satun, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Satun?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Satun (Thai League 2) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Pitchaya Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
