Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.75Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultŞamaxı FK to win ✓65% · @1.75
Double chanceŞamaxı FK or draw ✓87% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.31
Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku preview and prediction
The match
The Premyer Liqa sees Şamaxı FK take on Safa Baku on Friday 16 October, kicking off at 12:00 (WAT) at Shamakhi City Stadium. Şamaxı FK are 7th with 14 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Safa Baku sit 11th on 5 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Şamaxı FK's last 5: DWDWD Most recently they drew with Zira 1–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Safa Baku's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Turan 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Şamaxı FK arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.6 for Şamaxı FK and 0.5 for Safa Baku. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Şamaxı FK 65%, draw 22%, Safa Baku 13%.
Safer route: Şamaxı FK or draw (87%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.73.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Şamaxı FK to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.54, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Şamaxı FK 1–0 Safa Baku. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Şamaxı FK65%fair 1.54 · @1.75
Draw22%fair 4.61 · @3.25
Safa Baku13%fair 7.42 · @4.33
2.14Expected goals
1.60Şamaxı FK xG
0.54Safa Baku xG
51%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–015%
0–012%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Şamaxı FK 1.6 – 0.5 Safa Baku expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Şamaxı FK to win✓
65%
1.54
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Şamaxı FK or draw✓
87%
1.16
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
83%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Şamaxı FK / FT Şamaxı FK✗
39%
2.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.31
–
Form
Şamaxı FK – last 6
DWDWDD
10 Oct
@ Zira
1–1
D
20 Sep
vs Araz
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Sumqayıt
1–1
D
4 Sep
@ Kapaz
4–1
W
29 Aug
@ Qabala
0–0
D
23 Aug
@ Turan
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Safa Baku – last 6
LLLLLW
11 Oct
vs Turan
0–1
L
18 Sep
@ Qarabag
0–1
L
14 Sep
vs Sabah FA
0–3
L
5 Sep
@ Neftchi Baku
1–4
L
29 Aug
vs Imisli FK
0–1
L
22 Aug
@ Qabala
1–0
W
0.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Şamaxı FK and Safa Baku.
What is the prediction for Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku?
Our pick is Şamaxı FK to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku?
On our numbers Şamaxı FK have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Safa Baku 13%.
How many goals will there be in Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku?
Our predicted score is Şamaxı FK 1–0 Safa Baku, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku?
Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Friday 16 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Shamakhi City Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
