Qarabag host Safa Baku in the Premyer Liqa on Friday 18 September, with kick-off at 16:45 (WAT) at Tofiq Bahramov Stadium. Qarabag are 4th with 19 points from 10 games (in the top four), while Safa Baku sit 11th on 5 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Qarabag's last 5: DWWLW Most recently they drew with Zira 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Safa Baku's last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to Sabah FA 0–3 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Qarabag arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 2.0 for Qarabag and 0.7 for Safa Baku. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Qarabag 71%, draw 14%, Safa Baku 15%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.10.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 52% chance at odds of 2.10, above our fair price of 1.91, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Qarabag 1–1 Safa Baku. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Qarabag71%fair 1.41 · @1.12
Draw14%fair 7.01 · @7.00
Safa Baku15%fair 6.64 · @17.00
2.67Expected goals
1.98Qarabag xG
0.69Safa Baku xG
52%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–014%
1–19%
2–19%
3–09%
0–07%
From our goals model: Qarabag 2.0 – 0.7 Safa Baku expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Qarabag to win✓
71%
1.41
1.12
Double chance
Either team to win✓
86%
1.17
1.08
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
Half-time result
Qarabag ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Qarabag / FT Qarabag✗
44%
2.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.67
–
Form
Qarabag – last 6
DWWLWW
13 Sep
@ Zira
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Araz
3–2
W
31 Aug
@ Sumqayıt
1–0
W
27 Aug
vs Twente
1–2
L
20 Aug
@ Twente
1–0
W
17 Aug
vs Şamaxı FK
3–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Safa Baku – last 6
LLLWLL
14 Sep
vs Sabah FA
0–3
L
5 Sep
@ Neftchi Baku
1–4
L
29 Aug
vs Imisli FK
0–1
L
22 Aug
@ Qabala
1–0
W
16 Aug
@ Zira
0–2
L
22 May
@ Zaqatala
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Qarabag and Safa Baku.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.10.
Who will win Qarabag vs Safa Baku?
On our numbers Qarabag have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Safa Baku 15%.
How many goals will there be in Qarabag vs Safa Baku?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Qarabag vs Safa Baku?
Our predicted score is Qarabag 1–1 Safa Baku, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Qarabag vs Safa Baku?
Qarabag vs Safa Baku (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Friday 18 September 2026 at 16:45 (West Africa Time) at Tofiq Bahramov Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
