Value bet: Şamaxı FK to win @ 2.62 – our chance 45% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultŞamaxı FK to win ✗45% · @2.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · fair 1.32
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · fair 1.82
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.33
Sumqayıt vs Şamaxı FK preview and prediction
The match
Sumqayıt host Şamaxı FK in the Premyer Liqa on Saturday 12 September, with kick-off at 16:45 (WAT) at Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium. Sumqayıt are 9th with 10 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Şamaxı FK sit 7th on 14 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Sumqayıt's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Turan 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Şamaxı FK's last 5: WDDLL Most recently they beat Kapaz 4–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 5. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 13 March 2026, finished Sumqayıt 0–1 Keshla FC.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for Sumqayıt and 1.4 for Şamaxı FK. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 45%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sumqayıt 31%, draw 24%, Şamaxı FK 45%.
Value angle: Şamaxı FK to win at 2.62 – 45% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Either team to win – a 76% chance. Predicted score: Sumqayıt 0–1 Şamaxı FK. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sumqayıt31%fair 3.24 · @2.62
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @2.75
Şamaxı FK45%fair 2.22 · @2.62
2.43Expected goals
1.07Sumqayıt xG
1.36Şamaxı FK xG
45%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–09%
0–09%
1–29%
0–28%
From our goals model: Sumqayıt 1.1 – 1.4 Şamaxı FK expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
On our numbers Sumqayıt have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Şamaxı FK 45%.
How many goals will there be in Sumqayıt vs Şamaxı FK?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sumqayıt vs Şamaxı FK?
Our predicted score is Sumqayıt 0–1 Şamaxı FK, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Sumqayıt vs Şamaxı FK?
Sumqayıt vs Şamaxı FK (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 16:45 (West Africa Time) at Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
