Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.28Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.75 – our chance 61% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultTuran to win ✓63% · @1.65
Double chanceTuran or draw ✓86% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗21% · fair 4.85
Turan vs Sumqayıt preview and prediction
The match
The Premyer Liqa sees Turan take on Sumqayıt on Sunday 6 September, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT). Turan are 2nd with 21 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Sumqayıt sit 9th on 10 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Turan's last 5: LDWLW Most recently they lost to Kapaz 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sumqayıt's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Qarabag 0–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Turan arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.5 for Turan and 0.5 for Sumqayıt. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 61% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Turan 63%, draw 23%, Sumqayıt 14%.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 1.75 – 61% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.28, above our fair price of 1.25, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Turan 1–0 Sumqayıt. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Turan63%fair 1.59 · @1.65
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.30
Sumqayıt14%fair 7.16 · @4.75
1.96Expected goals
1.46Turan xG
0.50Sumqayıt xG
50%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–021%
2–015%
0–014%
1–110%
2–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Turan 1.5 – 0.5 Sumqayıt expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Turan to win✓
63%
1.59
1.65
Double chance
Turan or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
1.98
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.63
1.75 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Turan / FT Turan✗
37%
2.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
21%
4.85
–
Form
Turan – last 6
LDWLWL
30 Aug
@ Kapaz
0–1
L
23 Aug
vs Şamaxı FK
0–0
D
14 Aug
vs Qabala
1–0
W
22 May
vs Sabah FA
1–2
L
10 May
vs Karvan
1–0
W
4 May
@ Qarabag
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Sumqayıt – last 6
LLLLWL
31 Aug
vs Qarabag
0–1
L
16 Aug
vs Neftchi Baku
1–3
L
22 May
vs Qarabag
3–4
L
17 May
@ Zira
1–2
L
19 Apr
vs Qabala
1–0
W
5 Apr
vs Neftchi Baku
1–3
L
1.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Turan and Sumqayıt.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Turan vs Sumqayıt?
On our numbers Turan have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sumqayıt 14%.
How many goals will there be in Turan vs Sumqayıt?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Turan vs Sumqayıt?
Our predicted score is Turan 1–0 Sumqayıt, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Turan vs Sumqayıt?
Turan vs Sumqayıt (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
