Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Şamaxı FK to win @ 3.10 – our chance 34% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultKapaz to win ✗40% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗83% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.52
Kapaz vs Şamaxı FK preview and prediction
The match
Kapaz host Şamaxı FK in the Premyer Liqa on Friday 4 September, with kick-off at 17:15 (WAT) at Ganja City Stadium. Kapaz are 6th with 17 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Şamaxı FK sit 7th on 14 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Kapaz's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat Turan 1–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Şamaxı FK's last 5: DDLLL Most recently they drew with Qabala 0–0 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 26 April 2026, finished Şamaxı FK 2–0 Kapaz.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.0 for Kapaz and 0.9 for Şamaxı FK. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Kapaz 40%, draw 26%, Şamaxı FK 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Şamaxı FK to win at 3.10 – 34% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 83% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Kapaz 0–0 Şamaxı FK. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Kapaz40%fair 2.49 · @2.25
Draw26%fair 3.91 · @2.90
Şamaxı FK34%fair 2.92 · @3.10
1.86Expected goals
0.99Kapaz xG
0.88Şamaxı FK xG
51%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–016%
1–015%
0–114%
1–113%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Kapaz 1.0 – 0.9 Şamaxı FK expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Kapaz vs Şamaxı FK?
On our numbers Kapaz have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Şamaxı FK 34%.
How many goals will there be in Kapaz vs Şamaxı FK?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Kapaz vs Şamaxı FK?
Our predicted score is Kapaz 0–0 Şamaxı FK, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Kapaz vs Şamaxı FK?
Kapaz vs Şamaxı FK (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 17:15 (West Africa Time) at Ganja City Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
