Good pick · fair odds 1.47 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
7/10Rating
1.44Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultNeftchi Baku to win ✓68% · @1.44
Double chanceNeftchi Baku or draw ✓87% · @1.11
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗21% · fair 4.75
Neftchi Baku vs Araz preview and prediction
The match
Neftchi Baku host Araz in the Premyer Liqa on Sunday 23 August, with kick-off at 17:45 (WAT) at Palms Sports Arena. Neftchi Baku are 1st with 24 points from 11 games (top of the table), while Araz sit 12th on 4 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Neftchi Baku's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Sumqayıt 3–1 away. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Araz's last 5: DWLLW Most recently they drew with Imisli FK 0–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Neftchi Baku arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.6 for Neftchi Baku and 0.4 for Araz. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Neftchi Baku 68%, draw 19%, Araz 13%.
Both teams to score: no (54%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Neftchi Baku to win – a 68% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Neftchi Baku 1–0 Araz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Neftchi Baku68%fair 1.47 · @1.44
Draw19%fair 5.21 · @3.60
Araz13%fair 7.69 · @6.00
2.00Expected goals
1.56Neftchi Baku xG
0.44Araz xG
46%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–021%
2–016%
0–014%
1–19%
3–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Neftchi Baku 1.6 – 0.4 Araz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Neftchi Baku to win✓
68%
1.47
1.44
Double chance
Neftchi Baku or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.11
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
86%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Neftchi Baku / FT Neftchi Baku✓
40%
2.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
21%
4.75
–
Form
Neftchi Baku – last 6
WWLWWW
16 Aug
@ Sumqayıt
3–1
W
30 Jul
@ Dinamo Minsk
1–0
W
22 Jul
vs Dinamo Minsk
2–4
L
10 Jul
@ Radnicki NIS
3–0
W
6 Jul
vs FK Partizan
1–0
W
23 May
@ Kapaz
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Araz – last 6
DWLLWW
15 Aug
vs Imisli FK
0–0
D
23 May
vs Zira
3–2
W
17 Apr
vs Turan
0–3
L
7 Apr
vs Sabah FA
2–4
L
18 Mar
@ Keshla FC
1–0
W
13 Mar
vs Karvan
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Neftchi Baku and Araz.
Our pick is Neftchi Baku to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Neftchi Baku vs Araz?
On our numbers Neftchi Baku have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Araz 13%.
How many goals will there be in Neftchi Baku vs Araz?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Neftchi Baku vs Araz?
Our predicted score is Neftchi Baku 1–0 Araz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Neftchi Baku vs Araz?
Neftchi Baku vs Araz (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Palms Sports Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
