Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Qabala to win @ 1.95 – our chance 64% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultQabala to win ✗64% · @1.95
Double chanceQabala or draw ✗87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 5.02
Qabala vs Safa Baku preview and prediction
The match
Qabala host Safa Baku in the Premyer Liqa on Saturday 22 August, with kick-off at 15:30 (WAT). Qabala are 10th with 8 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Safa Baku sit 11th on 5 points (in the bottom three). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Qabala's last 5: LWWLL Most recently they lost to Turan 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Safa Baku's last 5: LLDDW Most recently they lost to Zira 0–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Qabala arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.5 for Qabala and 0.5 for Safa Baku. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 60% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Qabala 64%, draw 23%, Safa Baku 13%.
Safer route: Qabala or draw (87%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Qabala to win at 1.95 – 64% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Qabala or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Qabala 1–0 Safa Baku. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Qabala64%fair 1.57 · @1.95
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.20
Safa Baku13%fair 7.64 · @3.70
2.04Expected goals
1.53Qabala xG
0.51Safa Baku xG
50%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–020%
2–015%
0–013%
1–110%
3–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Qabala 1.5 – 0.5 Safa Baku expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Qabala to win✗
64%
1.57
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Qabala or draw✗
87%
1.15
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
2.00
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.53
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.68
1.77 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Qabala / FT Qabala✗
38%
2.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
20%
5.02
–
Form
Qabala – last 6
LWWLLW
14 Aug
@ Turan
0–1
L
28 May
vs Mingəçevir
2–0
W
21 May
vs Şamaxı FK
3–1
W
19 Apr
@ Sumqayıt
0–1
L
12 Apr
vs Imisli FK
0–1
L
5 Apr
@ Kapaz
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Safa Baku – last 6
LLDDWD
16 Aug
@ Zira
0–2
L
22 May
@ Zaqatala
1–2
L
6 May
@ Difai Ağsu
0–0
D
29 Apr
vs Şimal
0–0
D
22 Apr
vs MOIK
3–0
W
16 Apr
@ Baku Sportinq
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Qabala and Safa Baku.
Our pick is Qabala or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Qabala vs Safa Baku?
On our numbers Qabala have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Safa Baku 13%.
How many goals will there be in Qabala vs Safa Baku?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Qabala vs Safa Baku?
Our predicted score is Qabala 1–0 Safa Baku, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Qabala vs Safa Baku?
Qabala vs Safa Baku (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
