Value bet: Sudtirol to win @ 3.00 – our chance 37% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPadova to win ✓38% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.78
Padova vs Sudtirol preview and prediction
The match
Padova host Sudtirol in the Serie B on Tuesday 27 October, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Stadio Comunale Euganeo. Padova are 10th with 15 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Sudtirol sit 12th on 15 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Padova's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Avellino 1–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Sudtirol's last 5: DLDLW Most recently they drew with Sampdoria 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.1 for Padova and 1.0 for Sudtirol. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Padova 38%, draw 25%, Sudtirol 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Sudtirol to win at 3.00 – 37% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 1.80. Predicted score: Padova 1–1 Sudtirol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Padova38%fair 2.62 · @2.30
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.00
Sudtirol37%fair 2.74 · @3.00
2.13Expected goals
1.08Padova xG
1.05Sudtirol xG
55%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–112%
0–012%
2–17%
1–27%
From our goals model: Padova 1.1 – 1.0 Sudtirol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Padova to win✓
38%
2.62
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
20%
4.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.78
–
Form
Padova – last 6
WLLLWL
24 Oct
@ Avellino
1–0
W
17 Oct
vs Virtus Entella
1–2
L
11 Oct
vs Carrarese
0–2
L
19 Sep
@ Palermo
1–2
L
12 Sep
vs Ascoli
1–0
W
6 Sep
@ Cremonese
1–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sudtirol – last 6
DLDLWL
24 Oct
vs Sampdoria
1–1
D
18 Oct
@ Juve Stabia
0–3
L
10 Oct
vs Ascoli
0–0
D
2 Oct
vs Wacker Innsbruck
2–3
L
20 Sep
@ Arezzo
4–1
W
15 Sep
@ Genoa
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Padova and Sudtirol.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Padova vs Sudtirol?
On our numbers Padova have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sudtirol 37%.
How many goals will there be in Padova vs Sudtirol?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Padova vs Sudtirol?
Our predicted score is Padova 1–1 Sudtirol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Padova vs Sudtirol?
Padova vs Sudtirol (Serie B) kicks off on Tuesday 27 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Comunale Euganeo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
