Value bet: Firpo to win @ 1.72 – our chance 62% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFirpo to win ✓62% · @1.72
Double chanceFirpo or draw ✓86% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.41
Firpo vs Alianza preview and prediction
The match
Firpo host Alianza in the Primera Division on Thursday 5 November, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT). Firpo are 1st with 40 points from 20 games (top of the table), while Alianza sit 7th on 26 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Firpo's last 5: DLDDW Most recently they drew with FAS 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Alianza's last 5: LDWLD Most recently they lost to Atletico Balboa 0–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Firpo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 4 October 2026, finished Alianza 2–2 Firpo.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Firpo and 0.8 for Alianza. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Firpo 62%, draw 24%, Alianza 14%.
Safer route: Firpo or draw (86%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Firpo to win at 1.72 – 62% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.24. Predicted score: Firpo 2–0 Alianza. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Firpo62%fair 1.61 · @1.72
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.42
Alianza14%fair 7.34 · @4.26
2.63Expected goals
1.86Firpo xG
0.77Alianza xG
54%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Firpo 1.9 – 0.8 Alianza expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win Firpo vs Alianza?
On our numbers Firpo have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Alianza 14%.
How many goals will there be in Firpo vs Alianza?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Firpo vs Alianza?
Our predicted score is Firpo 2–0 Alianza, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Firpo vs Alianza?
Firpo vs Alianza (Primera Division) kicks off on Thursday 5 November 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
