Neftchi Baku travel to Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium in the Premyer Liqa on Sunday 16 August (16:00 WAT) to face Sumqayıt. Sumqayıt are 9th with 10 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Neftchi Baku sit 1st on 24 points (top of the table). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sumqayıt's last 5: LLWLL Most recently they lost to Qarabag 3–4 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Neftchi Baku's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Dinamo Minsk 1–0 away. On the road they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Neftchi Baku arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 5 April 2026, finished Sumqayıt 1–3 Neftchi Baku.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 0.8 for Sumqayıt and 2.0 for Neftchi Baku. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sumqayıt 14%, draw 21%, Neftchi Baku 64%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.77.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Sumqayıt 0–2 Neftchi Baku. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sumqayıt14%fair 6.95 · @5.00
Draw21%fair 4.73 · @3.70
Neftchi Baku64%fair 1.55 · @1.60
2.77Expected goals
0.81Sumqayıt xG
1.97Neftchi Baku xG
54%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–112%
0–212%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
1–36%
From our goals model: Sumqayıt 0.8 – 2.0 Neftchi Baku expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku?
On our numbers Sumqayıt have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Neftchi Baku 64%.
How many goals will there be in Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku?
Our predicted score is Sumqayıt 0–2 Neftchi Baku, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku?
Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
