Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultDerry City to win ✓63% · @1.40
Double chanceDerry City or draw ✓87% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗11% · fair 9.03
UCD vs Derry City preview and prediction
The match
UCD host Derry City in the FAI Cup on Friday 14 August, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at UCD Bowl.
Form guide
UCD's last 5: WLDWW Most recently they beat Wexford 4–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Derry City's last 5: WDLLW Most recently they beat Sligo Rovers 2–0 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.
UCD arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 0.9 for UCD and 2.1 for Derry City. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 57% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: UCD 13%, draw 24%, Derry City 63%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.77.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: UCD 0–2 Derry City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
UCD13%fair 7.53 · @6.60
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @4.20
Derry City63%fair 1.59 · @1.40
2.98Expected goals
0.89UCD xG
2.08Derry City xG
57%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–211%
0–111%
1–210%
1–19%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: UCD 0.9 – 2.1 Derry City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Derry City to win✓
63%
1.59
1.40
Double chance
Derry City or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.45
Half-time result
Derry City ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Derry City / FT Derry City✗
42%
2.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
11%
9.03
–
Form
UCD – last 6
WLDWWL
7 Aug
vs Wexford
4–1
W
3 Aug
vs Treaty United
1–2
L
31 Jul
@ Athlone Town
0–0
D
24 Jul
vs Cork City
5–2
W
17 Jul
@ Treaty United
2–1
W
10 Jul
@ Bray Wanderers
0–6
L
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Derry City – last 6
WDLLWL
7 Aug
vs Sligo Rovers
2–0
W
2 Aug
@ St Patrick's Athl.
1–1
D
30 Jul
vs HNK Rijeka
0–1
L
23 Jul
@ HNK Rijeka
0–1
L
19 Jul
vs Tolka Rovers
3–0
W
16 Jul
vs CSKA Sofia
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between UCD and Derry City.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win UCD vs Derry City?
On our numbers UCD have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Derry City 63%.
How many goals will there be in UCD vs Derry City?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UCD vs Derry City?
Our predicted score is UCD 0–2 Derry City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is UCD vs Derry City?
UCD vs Derry City (FAI Cup) kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at UCD Bowl.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Galway United1
Bray Wanderers1
Waterford2
Athlone Town1