Penafiel U23 vs Marítimo U23 prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Penafiel U23 or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.40Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.20 – our chance 57% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +81%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✓57% · @3.20
Double chancePenafiel U23 or draw ✓79% · @1.40
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · fair 1.71
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓62% · @1.65
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗9% · fair 10.76
Penafiel U23 vs Marítimo U23 preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Revelação U23 sees Penafiel U23 take on Marítimo U23 on Tuesday 18 August, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT). Penafiel U23 are 13th with 12 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Marítimo U23 sit 20th on 9 points (in the bottom three). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Marítimo U23's last 5: WLLLD Most recently they beat Estrela U23 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 1.8 for Penafiel U23 and 1.7 for Marítimo U23. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 62% and both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Draw at 3.20 – 57% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Penafiel U23 or draw – a 79% chance at odds of 1.40, above our fair price of 1.26, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Penafiel U23 1–1 Marítimo U23. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Penafiel U2323%fair 4.44 · @2.40
Draw57%fair 1.76 · @3.20
Marítimo U2321%fair 4.81 · @2.60
3.49Expected goals
1.76Penafiel U23 xG
1.72Marítimo U23 xG
59%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–19%
2–18%
1–28%
2–27%
1–05%
0–15%
From our goals model: Penafiel U23 1.8 – 1.7 Marítimo U23 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
57%
1.76
3.20 ▲
Double chance
Penafiel U23 or draw✓
79%
1.26
1.40 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.71
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
36%
2.76
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penafiel U23 / FT Penafiel U23✗
24%
4.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
9%
10.76
–
Form
Penafiel U23 – last 1
D
11 Aug
@ Portimonense U23
2–2
D
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Marítimo U23 – last 6
WLLLDW
28 Apr
vs Estrela U23
1–0
W
21 Apr
@ Gil Vicente U23
0–2
L
14 Apr
vs Farense U23
1–2
L
8 Apr
@ Rio Ave U23
1–3
L
1 Apr
vs Vizela U23
2–2
D
18 Mar
@ União Leiria U23
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penafiel U23 and Marítimo U23.
What is the prediction for Penafiel U23 vs Marítimo U23?
Our pick is Penafiel U23 or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Penafiel U23 vs Marítimo U23?
On our numbers Penafiel U23 have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 57% and Marítimo U23 21%.
How many goals will there be in Penafiel U23 vs Marítimo U23?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penafiel U23 vs Marítimo U23?
Our predicted score is Penafiel U23 1–1 Marítimo U23, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Penafiel U23 vs Marítimo U23?
Penafiel U23 vs Marítimo U23 (Liga Revelação U23) kicks off on Tuesday 18 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
