Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · fair 1.88
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.44
Joinville vs Hercílio Luz preview and prediction
The match
Hercílio Luz travel to Arena Joinville in the Copa Santa Catarina on Saturday 12 September (19:00 WAT) to face Joinville.
Form guide
Joinville's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat Blumenau 1–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Hercílio Luz's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Metropolitano 4–2 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Hercílio Luz arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 1.6 for Joinville and 1.8 for Hercílio Luz. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 53% and both teams to score at 53%.
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 53% chance at odds of 2.30, above our fair price of 1.89, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Joinville 1–2 Hercílio Luz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Joinville35%fair 2.87 · @2.38
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @3.20
Hercílio Luz43%fair 2.30 · @2.62
3.33Expected goals
1.56Joinville xG
1.77Hercílio Luz xG
53%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
1–29%
2–18%
2–27%
0–16%
1–06%
From our goals model: Joinville 1.6 – 1.8 Hercílio Luz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Hercílio Luz to win✓
43%
2.30
2.62 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
2.30 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.74
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
37%
2.69
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Hercílio Luz / FT Hercílio Luz✓
26%
3.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.44
–
Form
Joinville – last 6
WLLWLL
5 Sep
vs Blumenau
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Marcílio Dias
2–4
L
7 Jun
@ São Luiz
1–3
L
30 May
vs Guarany de Bagé
2–0
W
10 Mar
vs São Bernardo
0–1
L
7 Mar
@ Marcílio Dias
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Hercílio Luz – last 6
WWDWWW
30 Aug
vs Metropolitano
4–2
W
25 Jul
@ Nação
2–1
W
23 Jul
vs Caravaggio
0–0
D
19 Jul
@ Tubarao
2–0
W
15 Jul
vs Juventus SC
1–0
W
4 Jul
@ Guarani de Palhoça
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Joinville and Hercílio Luz.
What is the prediction for Joinville vs Hercílio Luz?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.30.
Who will win Joinville vs Hercílio Luz?
On our numbers Joinville have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Hercílio Luz 43%.
How many goals will there be in Joinville vs Hercílio Luz?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Joinville vs Hercílio Luz?
Our predicted score is Joinville 1–2 Hercílio Luz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Joinville vs Hercílio Luz?
Joinville vs Hercílio Luz (Copa Santa Catarina) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Joinville.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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