Liga 3 · Portugal

Varzim

LLLLL
2–0
FT

Fafe

WDLDW

Varzim vs Fafe prediction & analysis

71%
Footrivo pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.41 · bookmaker 1.32 · Won ✓

7/10Rating
1.32Odds
2

Value bet: Fafe to win @ 2.65 – our chance 44% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Quick tips for this match

ResultFafe to win ✗44% · @2.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.27
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.81
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.41

Win chances

Varzim33%fair 3.01 · @2.42
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.02
Fafe44%fair 2.25 · @2.65
2.59Expected goals
1.17Varzim xG
1.41Fafe xG
53%Both score
46%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–112%
0–111%
1–09%
1–29%
0–08%
0–28%

From our goals model: Varzim 1.2 – 1.4 Fafe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Fafe shade it despite being away from home – 44% to win, against 33% for Varzim.

Varzim have taken 0 points from their last 6 matches (0W 0D 6L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.2 per game. Fafe have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded. Fafe come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 2.6 goals (1.2 for Varzim, 1.4 for Fafe). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 53%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (11%), 1–0 (9%).

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 71% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.32 is close to our fair price of 1.41. For a bigger price, Fafe to win at 2.65 is our value angle (44% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultFafe to win ✗44%2.252.65 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78%1.291.27
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗53%1.881.81
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓71%1.411.32
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓54%1.841.63
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75%1.331.19
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓43%2.32–
Half-time / full-timeHT Fafe / FT Fafe ✗25%4.02–
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11%9.41–

Form

Varzim – last 6

LLLLLL
31 Oct@ Leça0–2L
25 Octvs Guimaraes B2–4L
11 Oct@ São João Ver1–2L
19 Sep@ Vitória de Sernache1–2L
12 Sepvs Vianense1–2L
5 Sepvs Paredes0–1L
0.8Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Fafe – last 6

WDLDWL
30 Octvs Pacos Ferreira3–1W
25 Oct@ AD Marco 090–0D
18 Oct@ Felgueiras 19320–1L
11 Octvs Trofense2–2D
20 Sepvs Lajense4–0W
13 Sep@ Paredes1–2L
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Varzim and Fafe.

More Liga 3 predictions

FT Louletano2 SC Covilha0 452233 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 66%@1.36 ✓ FT Vitória de Sernache0 Atlético CP1 262252 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 71%@1.33 ✗ FT Pacos Ferreira4 Trofense3 632512 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.22 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Varzim vs Fafe?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.32.

Who will win Varzim vs Fafe?

On our numbers Varzim have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Fafe 44%.

How many goals will there be in Varzim vs Fafe?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.

When is Varzim vs Fafe?

Varzim vs Fafe (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.