Liga 3 · Portugal

Pacos Ferreira

LWWDD
4–3
FT

Trofense

LLDLD

Pacos Ferreira vs Trofense prediction & analysis

75%
Footrivo pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗

8/10Rating
1.22Odds
1

Value bet: Pacos Ferreira to win @ 1.69 – our chance 63% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Quick tips for this match

ResultPacos Ferreira to win ✓63% · @1.69
Double chancePacos Ferreira or draw ✓88% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.64

Win chances

Pacos Ferreira63%fair 1.59 · @1.69
Draw25%fair 3.98 · @3.30
Trofense12%fair 8.31 · @4.40
2.48Expected goals
1.80Pacos Ferreira xG
0.68Trofense xG
54%Both score
45%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%

From our goals model: Pacos Ferreira 1.8 – 0.7 Trofense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Pacos Ferreira are clear favourites at home with a 63% chance of winning, against 12% for Trofense.

Pacos Ferreira have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 per game. Trofense have 2 points from their last 6 (0W 2D 4L), averaging 0.7 scored and 2.8 conceded. Pacos Ferreira come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 2.5 goals (1.8 for Pacos Ferreira, 0.7 for Trofense). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 54%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15%), 2–0 (14%), 1–1 (10%).

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.33. For a bigger price, Pacos Ferreira to win at 1.69 is our value angle (63% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPacos Ferreira to win ✓63%1.591.69 ▲
Double chancePacos Ferreira or draw ✓88%1.141.12
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓54%1.841.93 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓70%1.431.32
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗55%1.821.66
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75%1.331.22
Half-time resultPacos Ferreira ahead at half-time ✓45%2.23–
Half-time / full-timeHT Pacos Ferreira / FT Pacos Ferreira ✓41%2.47–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15%6.64–

Form

Pacos Ferreira – last 6

LWWDDD
30 Oct@ Fafe1–3L
23 Octvs Leça1–0W
11 Oct@ Guimaraes B1–0W
13 Sepvs São João Ver1–1D
5 Sep@ Vianense2–2D
29 Augvs Fafe0–0D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Trofense – last 6

LLDLDL
31 Octvs AD Marco 090–2L
24 Oct@ Paredes0–4L
11 Oct@ Fafe2–2D
12 Sepvs Leça1–4L
5 Sep@ Guimaraes B0–0D
29 Aug@ Varzim1–5L
0.7Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Pacos Ferreira and Trofense.

More Liga 3 predictions

FT Louletano2 SC Covilha0 452233 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 66%@1.36 ✓ FT Varzim2 Fafe0 332244 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 71%@1.32 ✓ FT Vitória de Sernache0 Atlético CP1 262252 O1.5Over 1.5 goals 71%@1.33 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Pacos Ferreira vs Trofense?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Pacos Ferreira vs Trofense?

On our numbers Pacos Ferreira have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Trofense 12%.

How many goals will there be in Pacos Ferreira vs Trofense?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

When is Pacos Ferreira vs Trofense?

Pacos Ferreira vs Trofense (Liga 3) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.