Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Alvechurch to win @ 1.90 – our chance 63% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlvechurch to win ✗63% · @1.90
Double chanceAlvechurch or draw ✗84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · fair 1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.11
Alvechurch vs Bury Town preview and prediction
The match
The Non League Premier Southern Central sees Alvechurch take on Bury Town on Saturday 10 October, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT). Alvechurch are 6th with 29 points from 15 games (in the top half), while Bury Town sit 3rd on 36 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Alvechurch's last 5: WDLDW Most recently they beat Cambridge City 2–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Bury Town's last 5: LDWLW Most recently they lost to Spalding United 0–4 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Alvechurch and 0.7 for Bury Town. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 45%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Alvechurch 63%, draw 21%, Bury Town 16%.
Safer route: Alvechurch or draw (84%) at 1.25.
Value angle: Alvechurch to win at 1.90 – 63% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Alvechurch or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Alvechurch 1–0 Bury Town. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alvechurch63%fair 1.58 · @1.90
Draw21%fair 4.72 · @3.40
Bury Town16%fair 6.41 · @3.40
2.55Expected goals
1.80Alvechurch xG
0.75Bury Town xG
45%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: Alvechurch 1.8 – 0.7 Bury Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alvechurch to win✗
63%
1.58
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Alvechurch or draw✗
84%
1.18
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
Half-time result
Alvechurch ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alvechurch / FT Alvechurch✗
39%
2.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.11
–
Form
Alvechurch – last 6
WDLDWW
3 Oct
@ Cambridge City
2–1
W
29 Sep
vs Stourbridge
0–0
D
26 Sep
vs Bourne Town
1–2
L
22 Sep
@ Anstey Nomads
2–2
D
19 Sep
vs Racing Club Warwick
3–1
W
12 Sep
vs Stamford
4–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Bury Town – last 6
LDWLWW
6 Oct
@ Spalding United
0–4
L
3 Oct
vs Spalding United
1–1
D
29 Sep
@ Bishop's Stortford
2–1
W
26 Sep
@ St Albans City
1–4
L
22 Sep
vs Hitchin Town
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ Gorleston
4–3
W
1.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alvechurch and Bury Town.
What is the prediction for Alvechurch vs Bury Town?
Our pick is Alvechurch or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Alvechurch vs Bury Town?
On our numbers Alvechurch have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Bury Town 16%.
How many goals will there be in Alvechurch vs Bury Town?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alvechurch vs Bury Town?
Our predicted score is Alvechurch 1–0 Bury Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Alvechurch vs Bury Town?
Alvechurch vs Bury Town (Non League Premier Southern Central) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
