Non League Premier Northern · EnglandLancaster City vs Leek Town prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.70 · bookmaker 1.73 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Lancaster City 1.8 – 1.5 Leek Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Lancaster City hold the edge on home soil with a 45% chance of winning, against 34% for Leek Town.
Lancaster City have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 2.3 per game. Leek Town have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
We expect around 3.2 goals (1.8 for Lancaster City, 1.5 for Leek Town). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%).
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 59% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.73 is close to our fair price of 1.70.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Lancaster City to win ✗ | 45% | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 54% | 1.87 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 83% | 1.20 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 59% | 1.70 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 59% | 1.69 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 38% | 2.65 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Lancaster City / FT Lancaster City ✗ | 27% | 3.74 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 11.18 | – |
Form
Lancaster City – last 6
| 13 Oct | vs Stockton Town | 1–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | @ Warrington Town | 2–2 | D |
| 7 Oct | @ Avro | 3–5 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Ilkeston Town | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Sep | @ Whitby Town | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Sep | @ Cleethorpes Town | 1–5 | L |
Leek Town – last 6
| 10 Oct | vs Ashton United | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Oct | vs Rylands | 3–3 | D |
| 26 Sep | @ Worcester City | 2–0 | W |
| 22 Sep | vs Hyde United | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Bromsgrove Sporting | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | @ Redcar Athletic | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lancaster City and Leek Town.
Non League Premier Northern table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cleethorpes Town | 16 | +25 | 36 |
| 2 |  Redcar Athletic | 17 | +18 | 35 |
| 3 |  Curzon Ashton | 17 | +13 | 34 |
| 4 |  Guiseley AFC | 15 | +18 | 32 |
| 5 |  Gainsborough Trinity | 17 | +9 | 29 |
| 6 |  Warrington Town | 17 | +7 | 29 |
| 7 |  Rylands | 16 | +7 | 29 |
| 8 |  Avro | 17 | +6 | 29 |
| 9 |  Workington | 17 | +1 | 27 |
| 10 |  Bury | 15 | +13 | 26 |
| 11 |  Alfreton Town | 17 | +1 | 23 |
| 12 |  AFC Emley | 18 | -8 | 23 |
| 13 |  Quorn | 16 | -1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Lancaster City | 18 | -11 | 21 |
| 15 |  Whitby Town | 17 | -21 | 19 |
| 16 |  Hyde United | 17 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 |  Ashton United | 17 | -2 | 17 |
| 18 |  Leek Town | 17 | -5 | 17 |
| 19 |  Stockton Town | 17 | -6 | 15 |
| 20 |  Ilkeston Town | 17 | -24 | 13 |
| 21 |  United of Manchester | 16 | -7 | 12 |
| 22 |  Bamber Bridge | 17 | -20 | 11 |
More Non League Premier Northern predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Lancaster City vs Leek Town?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Lancaster City vs Leek Town?
On our numbers Lancaster City have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Leek Town 34%.
How many goals will there be in Lancaster City vs Leek Town?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Lancaster City vs Leek Town?
Lancaster City vs Leek Town (Non League Premier Northern) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.