Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.55 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.55Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultBury to win ✗62% · @1.55
Double chanceBury or draw ✗81% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.32
Bury vs Lancaster City preview and prediction
The match
The Non League Premier Northern sees Bury take on Lancaster City on Tuesday 25 August, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at Gigg Lane. Bury are 7th with 29 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Lancaster City sit 14th on 21 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Bury's last 5: WLWWD Most recently they beat Gainsborough Trinity 1–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Lancaster City's last 5: DLLWL Most recently they drew with Quorn 2–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Bury arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.0 for Bury and 0.9 for Lancaster City. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score in 57% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bury 62%, draw 20%, Lancaster City 19%.
Safer route: Bury or draw (81%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Bury to win – a 62% chance at odds of 1.55. Predicted score: Bury 1–0 Lancaster City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bury62%fair 1.63 · @1.55
Draw20%fair 5.02 · @3.60
Lancaster City19%fair 5.39 · @5.00
2.90Expected goals
1.95Bury xG
0.95Lancaster City xG
57%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
2–010%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Bury 2.0 – 0.9 Lancaster City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bury to win✗
62%
1.63
1.55
Double chance
Bury or draw✗
81%
1.23
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.80
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
Bury ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bury / FT Bury✗
39%
2.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.32
–
Form
Bury – last 6
WLWWDW
22 Aug
@ Gainsborough Trinity
1–0
W
18 Aug
@ Guiseley AFC
2–3
L
15 Aug
vs Rylands
1–0
W
11 Aug
vs Curzon Ashton
3–2
W
8 Aug
@ Redcar Athletic
0–0
D
1 Aug
vs Radcliffe
3–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Lancaster City – last 6
DLLWLD
22 Aug
vs Quorn
2–2
D
18 Aug
@ Redcar Athletic
1–3
L
15 Aug
vs Hyde United
1–2
L
11 Aug
vs Rylands
1–0
W
8 Aug
@ Ashton United
1–4
L
21 Jul
vs Preston North End U21
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bury and Lancaster City.
What is the prediction for Bury vs Lancaster City?
Our pick is Bury to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Bury vs Lancaster City?
On our numbers Bury have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Lancaster City 19%.
How many goals will there be in Bury vs Lancaster City?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bury vs Lancaster City?
Our predicted score is Bury 1–0 Lancaster City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Bury vs Lancaster City?
Bury vs Lancaster City (Non League Premier Northern) kicks off on Tuesday 25 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Gigg Lane.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
