Curzon Ashton vs Alfreton Town prediction & analysis
86%
Footrivo pick
Curzon Ashton or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Curzon Ashton to win @ 1.80 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCurzon Ashton to win ✓61% · @1.80
Double chanceCurzon Ashton or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · fair 1.94
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓12% · fair 8.36
Curzon Ashton vs Alfreton Town preview and prediction
The match
Curzon Ashton host Alfreton Town in the Non League Premier Northern on Saturday 8 August, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Tameside Stadium. Curzon Ashton are 2nd with 37 points from 18 games (in the top four), while Alfreton Town sit 11th on 23 points (in the top half). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Curzon Ashton's last 5: LLDLD Most recently they lost to FC Halifax Town 0–1 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Alfreton Town's last 5: LLLLD Most recently they lost to Mansfield Town 0–4 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.9 for Curzon Ashton and 0.8 for Alfreton Town. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 48%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Curzon Ashton 61%, draw 25%, Alfreton Town 14%.
Safer route: Curzon Ashton or draw (86%) at 1.22.
Value angle: Curzon Ashton to win at 1.80 – 61% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Curzon Ashton or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Curzon Ashton 1–0 Alfreton Town. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Curzon Ashton61%fair 1.64 · @1.80
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.50
Alfreton Town14%fair 7.04 · @3.70
2.78Expected goals
1.93Curzon Ashton xG
0.85Alfreton Town xG
48%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Curzon Ashton 1.9 – 0.8 Alfreton Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Curzon Ashton to win✓
61%
1.64
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Curzon Ashton or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
77%
1.31
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
–
Half-time result
Curzon Ashton ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Curzon Ashton / FT Curzon Ashton✗
40%
2.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
12%
8.36
–
Form
Curzon Ashton – last 6
LLDLDL
1 Aug
vs FC Halifax Town
0–1
L
6 Apr
vs Southport
1–3
L
3 Apr
@ Radcliffe
3–3
D
17 Mar
@ Spennymoor Town
1–4
L
10 Mar
vs Oxford City
2–2
D
24 Feb
vs Darlington 1883
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Alfreton Town – last 6
LLLLDL
28 Jul
vs Mansfield Town
0–4
L
21 Jul
vs Rotherham
0–1
L
17 Jul
vs Derby
0–2
L
14 Jul
vs Boston United
1–2
L
11 Jul
vs Burton Albion
0–0
D
4 Jul
vs Notts County
0–5
L
0.2Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Curzon Ashton and Alfreton Town.
What is the prediction for Curzon Ashton vs Alfreton Town?
Our pick is Curzon Ashton or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Curzon Ashton vs Alfreton Town?
On our numbers Curzon Ashton have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Alfreton Town 14%.
How many goals will there be in Curzon Ashton vs Alfreton Town?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Curzon Ashton vs Alfreton Town?
Our predicted score is Curzon Ashton 1–0 Alfreton Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Curzon Ashton vs Alfreton Town?
Curzon Ashton vs Alfreton Town (Non League Premier Northern) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Tameside Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
