Value bet: Over 3.5 goals @ 2.35 – our chance 51% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSpartans to win ✓65% · @1.35
Double chanceSpartans or draw ✓84% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.73
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓71% · @1.53
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.60
Spartans vs Hearts U21 preview and prediction
The match
Spartans host Hearts U21 in the Challenge Cup on Tuesday 25 August, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at Ainslie Park.
Form guide
Spartans's last 5: DLDDW Most recently they drew with Elgin City 3–3 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Hearts U21's last 5: WWLLD Most recently they beat Berwick Rangers 4–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 3.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.3 goals: 2.9 for Spartans and 1.5 for Hearts U21. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Over 3.5 goals at 2.35 – 51% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 71% chance at odds of 1.53, above our fair price of 1.41, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Spartans 2–1 Hearts U21. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Spartans65%fair 1.53 · @1.35
Draw19%fair 5.36 · @4.60
Hearts U2116%fair 6.21 · @7.00
4.32Expected goals
2.86Spartans xG
1.46Hearts U21 xG
62%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–18%
3–18%
2–26%
1–16%
3–26%
2–05%
From our goals model: Spartans 2.9 – 1.5 Hearts U21 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Spartans to win✓
65%
1.53
1.35
Double chance
Spartans or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.60
1.73 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.53 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
2.35 ▲
Half-time result
Spartans ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.95
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Spartans / FT Spartans✓
45%
2.22
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.60
–
Form
Spartans – last 6
DLDDWW
22 Aug
vs Elgin City
3–3
D
15 Aug
@ Stranraer
0–1
L
11 Aug
@ East Fife
2–2
D
8 Aug
vs Edinburgh City
2–2
D
1 Aug
@ Annan Athletic
4–2
W
25 Jul
@ Montrose
2–0
W
2.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Hearts U21 – last 6
WWLLDL
11 Aug
@ Berwick Rangers
4–3
W
10 Apr
vs Albion Rovers
3–0
W
3 Apr
@ East Stirlingshire
2–4
L
20 Mar
vs Clydebank
0–8
L
6 Mar
vs Gretna 2008
1–1
D
27 Feb
@ Cumbernauld Colts
0–3
L
1.7Scored / game
3.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Spartans and Hearts U21.
What is the prediction for Spartans vs Hearts U21?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Spartans vs Hearts U21?
On our numbers Spartans have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Hearts U21 16%.
How many goals will there be in Spartans vs Hearts U21?
We expect about 4.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Spartans vs Hearts U21?
Our predicted score is Spartans 2–1 Hearts U21, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.3 goals in total.
When is Spartans vs Hearts U21?
Spartans vs Hearts U21 (Challenge Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 25 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Ainslie Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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