EFL Trophy · England · Rodney Parade
Newport County vs Crystal Palace U21 prediction & analysis
Newport County or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Newport County to win @ 1.67 – our chance 67% vs 60% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Newport County 2.4 – 1.0 Crystal Palace U21 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Newport County are clear favourites at home with a 67% chance of winning, against 12% for Crystal Palace U21.
Newport County have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.2 per game. Crystal Palace U21 have 6 points from their last 6 (2W 0D 4L), averaging 1.7 scored and 2.8 conceded.
We expect around 3.4 goals (2.4 for Newport County, 1.0 for Crystal Palace U21). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%), 1–1 (8%).
Our pick is Newport County or draw at a 88% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is better than our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Newport County to win at 1.67 is our value angle (67% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Newport County to win ✗ | 67% | 1.49 | 1.67 ▲ |
| Double chance | Newport County or draw ✗ | 88% | 1.14 | 1.25 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 60% | 1.66 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 83% | 1.21 | 1.17 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 64% | 1.56 | 1.53 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 57% | 1.76 | 1.57 |
| Half-time result | Newport County ahead at half-time ✗ | 51% | 1.96 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Newport County / FT Newport County ✗ | 46% | 2.18 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.47 | – |
Form
Newport County – last 6
| 30 Oct | vs Chesterfield | 4–1 | W |
| 24 Oct | @ Cheltenham | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Oct | @ Rotherham | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Oct | vs York | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Colchester | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Oct | vs Plymouth | 2–2 | D |
Crystal Palace U21 – last 6
| 26 Oct | vs Southampton U21 | 2–5 | L |
| 18 Oct | @ Leeds United U21 | 4–1 | W |
| 14 Oct | vs Anderlecht U21 | 1–4 | L |
| 22 Sep | @ Plymouth | 1–5 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Blackburn Rovers U21 | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Sep | @ Swindon Town | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Newport County and Crystal Palace U21.
EFL Trophy table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cardiff | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 2 |  Exeter City | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 |  Newport County | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 |  Arsenal U21 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
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Brighton U210Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Newport County vs Crystal Palace U21?
Our pick is Newport County or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Newport County vs Crystal Palace U21?
On our numbers Newport County have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Crystal Palace U21 12%.
How many goals will there be in Newport County vs Crystal Palace U21?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Newport County vs Crystal Palace U21?
Newport County vs Crystal Palace U21 (EFL Trophy) kicks off on Tuesday 3 November 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Rodney Parade.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.