National League South · England · Melbourne StadiumChelmsford City vs Horsham prediction & analysis
Chelmsford City or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
Value bet: Chelmsford City to win @ 1.83 – our chance 60% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Chelmsford City 1.7 – 0.8 Horsham expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Chelmsford City are clear favourites at home with a 60% chance of winning, against 19% for Horsham.
Chelmsford City have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (2W 4D 0L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.0 per game. Horsham have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.7 for Chelmsford City, 0.8 for Horsham). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 53%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%).
Our pick is Chelmsford City or draw at a 81% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.23. For a bigger price, Chelmsford City to win at 1.83 is our value angle (60% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Chelmsford City to win ✗ | 60% | 1.66 | 1.83 ▲ |
| Double chance | Chelmsford City or draw ✓ | 81% | 1.23 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 53% | 1.88 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 73% | 1.36 | 1.25 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 51% | 1.97 | 2.00 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.39 | 1.36 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 42% | 2.35 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Chelmsford City / FT Chelmsford City ✗ | 37% | 2.74 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 14% | 7.23 | – |
Form
Chelmsford City – last 6
| 19 Sep | @ Canvey Island | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Hampton & Richmond | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Sep | @ Dorking Wanderers | 3–3 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Salisbury | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Aug | @ Weston-super-Mare | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | vs Maidenhead | 1–0 | W |
Horsham – last 6
| 19 Sep | @ Walton & Hersham | 3–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Chesham United | 1–4 | L |
| 8 Sep | @ Folkestone Invicta | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Dagenham & Redbridge | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | vs Farnham Town | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | @ Braintree | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chelmsford City and Horsham.
National League South table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ebbsfleet United | 16 | +26 | 35 |
| 2 |  Maidstone Utd | 16 | +9 | 32 |
| 3 |  Truro City | 14 | +15 | 30 |
| 4 |  Farnham Town | 16 | +12 | 29 |
| 5 |  Salisbury | 14 | +15 | 28 |
| 6 |  Dorking Wanderers | 15 | +11 | 27 |
| 7 |  Billericay Town | 14 | +16 | 26 |
| 8 |  Chelmsford City | 16 | +8 | 25 |
| 9 |  Dagenham & Redbridge | 16 | +2 | 25 |
| 10 |  Tonbridge Angels | 16 | +9 | 24 |
| 11 |  Horsham | 16 | +4 | 22 |
| 12 |  Dover | 14 | +1 | 22 |
| 13 |  Weston-super-Mare | 15 | +3 | 21 |
| 14 |  Torquay | 14 | +5 | 20 |
| 15 |  Folkestone Invicta | 15 | +4 | 20 |
| 16 |  AFC Totton | 16 | -12 | 19 |
| 17 |  Farnborough | 16 | -20 | 17 |
| 18 |  Maidenhead | 16 | -5 | 16 |
| 19 |  Braintree | 15 | -16 | 16 |
| 20 |  Hemel Hempstead Town | 16 | -9 | 15 |
| 21 |  Chesham United | 15 | -13 | 11 |
| 22 |  Hampton & Richmond | 16 | -18 | 10 |
| 23 |  Walton & Hersham | 15 | -25 | 8 |
| 24 |  Slough Town | 16 | -22 | 7 |
More National League South predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Chelmsford City vs Horsham?
Our pick is Chelmsford City or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Chelmsford City vs Horsham?
On our numbers Chelmsford City have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Horsham 19%.
How many goals will there be in Chelmsford City vs Horsham?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Chelmsford City vs Horsham?
Chelmsford City vs Horsham (National League South) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Melbourne Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.