Value bet: Fatih Karagümrük to win @ 3.50 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMardin 1969 to win ✓46% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓13% · fair 7.83
Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük preview and prediction
The match
The 1. Lig sees Mardin 1969 take on Fatih Karagümrük on Thursday 15 October, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at 21 Kasım Stadium. Mardin 1969 are 4th with 25 points from 14 games (in the top four), while Fatih Karagümrük sit 9th on 19 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Mardin 1969's last 5: WLLWD Most recently they beat Bursaspor 2–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Fatih Karagümrük's last 5: DWDLD Most recently they drew with Muğlaspor 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.3 for Mardin 1969 and 1.0 for Fatih Karagümrük. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 56%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mardin 1969 46%, draw 22%, Fatih Karagümrük 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Fatih Karagümrük to win at 3.50 – 32% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 56% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Mardin 1969 1–1 Fatih Karagümrük. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mardin 196946%fair 2.16 · @2.05
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.20
Fatih Karagümrük32%fair 3.15 · @3.50
2.33Expected goals
1.31Mardin 1969 xG
1.02Fatih Karagümrük xG
56%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–110%
0–010%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Mardin 1969 1.3 – 1.0 Fatih Karagümrük expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mardin 1969 to win✓
46%
2.16
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mardin 1969 / FT Mardin 1969✓
25%
3.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
13%
7.83
–
Form
Mardin 1969 – last 6
WLLWDD
11 Oct
@ Bursaspor
2–1
W
20 Sep
vs Kayserispor
0–1
L
13 Sep
@ Iğdır FK
0–1
L
7 Sep
vs Bodrum FK
1–0
W
2 Sep
@ Sivasspor
2–2
D
29 Aug
vs Vanspor FK
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Fatih Karagümrük – last 6
DWDLDD
11 Oct
vs Muğlaspor
1–1
D
19 Sep
@ Esenler Erokspor
2–0
W
13 Sep
vs Manisa F.K.
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Batman Petrolspor
3–4
L
2 Sep
vs Kayserispor
1–1
D
29 Aug
@ İstanbulspor
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mardin 1969 and Fatih Karagümrük.
What is the prediction for Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük?
On our numbers Mardin 1969 have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Fatih Karagümrük 32%.
How many goals will there be in Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our predicted score is Mardin 1969 1–1 Fatih Karagümrük, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Mardin 1969 vs Fatih Karagümrük (1. Lig) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at 21 Kasım Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
