Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.35 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.35Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.30 – our chance 56% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +86%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✓56% · @3.30
Double chanceÜmraniyespor or draw ✓80% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗13% · fair 7.98
Ümraniyespor vs Mardin 1969 preview and prediction
The match
The 1. Lig sees Ümraniyespor take on Mardin 1969 on Saturday 8 August, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Ümraniye Belediyesi Sehir Stadi. Ümraniyespor are 12th with 17 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Mardin 1969 sit 4th on 25 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Ümraniyespor's last 5: LLDWL Most recently they lost to Galatasaray 1–5 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Mardin 1969's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor 0–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Mardin 1969 arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Ümraniyespor and 1.3 for Mardin 1969. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ümraniyespor 23%, draw 56%, Mardin 1969 20%.
Safer route: Ümraniyespor or draw (80%) at 1.35.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Draw at 3.30 – 56% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Ümraniyespor or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.35, above our fair price of 1.26, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Ümraniyespor 1–1 Mardin 1969. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ümraniyespor23%fair 4.35 · @2.35
Draw56%fair 1.77 · @3.30
Mardin 196920%fair 4.88 · @2.70
2.60Expected goals
1.33Ümraniyespor xG
1.28Mardin 1969 xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Ümraniyespor 1.3 – 1.3 Mardin 1969 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
56%
1.77
3.30 ▲
Double chance
Ümraniyespor or draw✓
80%
1.26
1.35 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ümraniyespor / FT Ümraniyespor✗
22%
4.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
13%
7.98
–
Form
Ümraniyespor – last 6
LLDWLL
17 Jul
vs Galatasaray
1–5
L
19 Apr
vs Vanspor FK
1–2
L
13 Apr
@ Amed
2–2
D
8 Apr
vs Sakaryaspor
2–0
W
3 Apr
@ Bodrum FK
0–1
L
15 Mar
@ Sivasspor
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Mardin 1969 – last 6
DWWWWW
30 Apr
@ Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
0–0
D
19 Apr
@ Güzide Gebzespor
2–1
W
12 Apr
vs Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
2–1
W
29 Mar
vs 68 Aksaray Belediyespor
1–0
W
25 Mar
@ Menemen FK
3–1
W
14 Mar
vs Kırklarelispor
3–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ümraniyespor and Mardin 1969.
What is the prediction for Ümraniyespor vs Mardin 1969?
Our pick is Ümraniyespor or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Ümraniyespor vs Mardin 1969?
On our numbers Ümraniyespor have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 56% and Mardin 1969 20%.
How many goals will there be in Ümraniyespor vs Mardin 1969?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ümraniyespor vs Mardin 1969?
Our predicted score is Ümraniyespor 1–1 Mardin 1969, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Ümraniyespor vs Mardin 1969?
Ümraniyespor vs Mardin 1969 (1. Lig) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Ümraniye Belediyesi Sehir Stadi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
