National League · England · Brunton ParkCarlisle vs Southend prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Carlisle 1.9 – 1.7 Southend expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Carlisle hold the edge on home soil with a 42% chance of winning, against 35% for Southend.
Carlisle have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.7 per game. Southend have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.3 conceded. Southend come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.6 goals (1.9 for Carlisle, 1.7 for Southend). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (9%), 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 64% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.53 is close to our fair price of 1.56.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Carlisle to win ✗ | 42% | 2.37 | 2.25 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 64% | 1.56 | 1.53 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.44 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 52% | 1.93 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 36% | 2.81 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Carlisle / FT Carlisle ✗ | 26% | 3.84 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 8% | 11.94 | – |
Form
Carlisle – last 6
| 5 Sep | @ Boreham Wood | 1–2 | L |
| 31 Aug | vs Scunthorpe | 4–2 | W |
| 28 Aug | @ Wealdstone | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Aug | vs AFC Hornchurch | 4–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | @ Yeovil Town | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Aug | vs Worthing | 2–3 | L |
Southend – last 6
| 5 Sep | vs Yeovil Town | 3–2 | W |
| 31 Aug | @ Woking | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Aug | vs Kidderminster Harriers | 1–3 | L |
| 22 Aug | @ Solihull Moors | 3–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | vs Scunthorpe | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | @ Altrincham | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Carlisle and Southend.
National League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boreham Wood | 16 | +27 | 44 |
| 2 |  Harrogate Town | 16 | +11 | 32 |
| 3 |  Southend | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 4 |  AFC Fylde | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 5 |  Yeovil Town | 16 | +15 | 28 |
| 6 |  Worthing | 16 | +7 | 28 |
| 7 |  Altrincham | 16 | 0 | 28 |
| 8 |  Carlisle | 16 | +9 | 26 |
| 9 |  Barrow | 15 | +7 | 25 |
| 10 |  FC Halifax Town | 16 | +8 | 24 |
| 11 |  Sutton Utd | 16 | -1 | 24 |
| 12 |  Woking | 16 | +1 | 21 |
| 13 |  Kidderminster Harriers | 16 | +1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Aldershot Town | 16 | 0 | 21 |
| 15 |  AFC Hornchurch | 16 | -8 | 21 |
| 16 |  Forest Green | 14 | -1 | 19 |
| 17 |  Eastleigh | 16 | -6 | 19 |
| 18 |  Wealdstone | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 19 |  Boston United | 16 | -8 | 18 |
| 20 |  Tamworth | 15 | -7 | 17 |
| 21 |  Hartlepool | 16 | -9 | 15 |
| 22 |  Solihull Moors | 16 | -21 | 13 |
| 23 |  Scunthorpe | 15 | -11 | 10 |
| 24 |  Gateshead | 15 | -25 | 4 |
More National League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Carlisle vs Southend?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Carlisle vs Southend?
On our numbers Carlisle have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Southend 35%.
How many goals will there be in Carlisle vs Southend?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
When is Carlisle vs Southend?
Carlisle vs Southend (National League) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Brunton Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.