Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.70 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.70Odds
1
Value bet: Santa Clara to win @ 2.60 – our chance 45% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSanta Clara to win ✓45% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · fair 1.27
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · fair 1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.63
Santa Clara vs Arouca preview and prediction
The match
Arouca travel to face Santa Clara in the Friendlies Clubs on Saturday 25 July (11:00 WAT).
Form guide
Santa Clara's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Felgueiras 1932 1–1 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 5. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Arouca's last 5: DDLWW Most recently they drew with Famalicao 0–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Santa Clara arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.2 for Santa Clara and 1.0 for Arouca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 45%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Santa Clara 45%, draw 21%, Arouca 34%.
Value angle: Santa Clara to win at 2.60 – 45% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 58% chance at odds of 1.70. Predicted score: Santa Clara 1–1 Arouca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Santa Clara45%fair 2.23 · @2.60
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @3.25
Arouca34%fair 2.92 · @2.38
2.23Expected goals
1.22Santa Clara xG
1.01Arouca xG
45%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–111%
0–011%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Santa Clara 1.2 – 1.0 Arouca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Santa Clara to win✓
45%
2.23
2.60 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.71
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Santa Clara / FT Santa Clara
23%
4.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.63
–
Form
Santa Clara – last 6
DWWWWW
22 Jul
vs Felgueiras 1932
1–1
D
22 Jul
vs Moreirense
2–1
W
18 Jul
vs Paredes
2–0
W
15 Jul
vs Leça
4–0
W
11 May
vs Nacional
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ AVS
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Arouca – last 6
DDLWWW
22 Jul
@ Famalicao
0–0
D
18 Jul
@ Feirense
0–0
D
11 Jul
@ Rio Ave
1–2
L
11 May
@ GIL Vicente
3–1
W
19 Apr
vs Estrela
1–0
W
6 Apr
vs Estoril
3–2
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santa Clara and Arouca.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Santa Clara vs Arouca?
On our numbers Santa Clara have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Arouca 34%.
How many goals will there be in Santa Clara vs Arouca?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santa Clara vs Arouca?
Our predicted score is Santa Clara 1–1 Arouca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Santa Clara vs Arouca?
Santa Clara vs Arouca (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Saturday 25 July 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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