LDU de Quito vs Leones del Norte prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultLDU de Quito to win ✓68% · @1.50
Double chanceLDU de Quito or draw ✓90% · @1.06
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.22
LDU de Quito vs Leones del Norte preview and prediction
The match
LDU de Quito host Leones del Norte in the Copa Ecuador on Thursday 30 July, with kick-off at 21:00 (WAT) at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado.
Form guide
LDU de Quito's last 5: WDLLD Most recently they beat Barcelona SC 1–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Leones del Norte's last 5: WDWDW Most recently they beat Delfin SC 1–0 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Leones del Norte arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 18 July 2026, finished LDU de Quito 0–1 Leones del Norte. Across their last 2 meetings LDU de Quito have won 1, Leones del Norte 1, with 0 draws and 1.5 goals per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.7 for LDU de Quito and 0.5 for Leones del Norte. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 60% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: LDU de Quito 68%, draw 22%, Leones del Norte 10%.
Both teams to score: no (54%) at 1.57.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: LDU de Quito 1–0 Leones del Norte. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
LDU de Quito68%fair 1.47 · @1.50
Draw22%fair 4.63 · @3.50
Leones del Norte10%fair 9.76 · @6.50
2.19Expected goals
1.71LDU de Quito xG
0.48Leones del Norte xG
46%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–016%
0–011%
3–09%
1–19%
2–18%
From our goals model: LDU de Quito 1.7 – 0.5 Leones del Norte expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for LDU de Quito vs Leones del Norte?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win LDU de Quito vs Leones del Norte?
On our numbers LDU de Quito have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Leones del Norte 10%.
How many goals will there be in LDU de Quito vs Leones del Norte?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for LDU de Quito vs Leones del Norte?
Our predicted score is LDU de Quito 1–0 Leones del Norte, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is LDU de Quito vs Leones del Norte?
LDU de Quito vs Leones del Norte (Copa Ecuador) kicks off on Thursday 30 July 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Independiente del Valle1
Manta FC0