Libertad Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta prediction & analysis
78%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.30 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
1
Value bet: Libertad Asuncion to win @ 1.88 – our chance 61% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLibertad Asuncion to win ✓61% · @1.88
Double chanceLibertad Asuncion or draw ✓86% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.19
Libertad Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta preview and prediction
The match
Deportivo Recoleta travel to Estadio Tigo La Huerta in the Division Profesional Clausura on Thursday 30 July (22:30 WAT) to face Libertad Asuncion. Libertad Asuncion are 3rd with 33 points from 19 games (in the top four), while Deportivo Recoleta sit 11th on 16 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Libertad Asuncion's last 5: WLLLD Most recently they beat Olimpia 1–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Deportivo Recoleta's last 5: DWDLD Most recently they drew with Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 31 March 2026, finished Libertad Asuncion 1–0 Deportivo Recoleta.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.5 for Libertad Asuncion and 0.6 for Deportivo Recoleta. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 59% likely.
Safer route: Libertad Asuncion or draw (86%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Libertad Asuncion to win at 1.88 – 61% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Libertad Asuncion 1–0 Deportivo Recoleta. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Libertad Asuncion61%fair 1.65 · @1.88
Draw25%fair 3.98 · @3.40
Deportivo Recoleta14%fair 7.07 · @3.80
2.05Expected goals
1.49Libertad Asuncion xG
0.56Deportivo Recoleta xG
50%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–014%
0–013%
1–111%
2–18%
0–17%
From our goals model: Libertad Asuncion 1.5 – 0.6 Deportivo Recoleta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Libertad Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Libertad Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?
On our numbers Libertad Asuncion have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Deportivo Recoleta 14%.
How many goals will there be in Libertad Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Libertad Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?
Our predicted score is Libertad Asuncion 1–0 Deportivo Recoleta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Libertad Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?
Libertad Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta (Division Profesional Clausura) kicks off on Thursday 30 July 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Tigo La Huerta.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
