Uruguay Montevideo vs Oriental preview and prediction
The match
Oriental travel to face Uruguay Montevideo in the Segunda División on Sunday 12 July (13:00 WAT). Uruguay Montevideo are 14th with 22 points from 25 games (in the bottom three), while Oriental sit 6th on 34 points (in the top half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Uruguay Montevideo's last 5: LWLLL Most recently they lost to Colón 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Oriental's last 5: LDDWD Most recently they lost to CA River Plate 1–2 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Oriental arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for Uruguay Montevideo and 1.3 for Oriental. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 53%.
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Uruguay Montevideo 1–1 Oriental. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Uruguay Montevideo33%fair 3.00 · @3.00
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.10
Oriental44%fair 2.26 · @2.30
2.40Expected goals
1.09Uruguay Montevideo xG
1.31Oriental xG
53%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Uruguay Montevideo 1.1 – 1.3 Oriental expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Oriental to win✗
44%
2.26
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Oriental / FT Oriental✗
24%
4.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.38
–
Form
Uruguay Montevideo – last 6
LWLLLW
6 Jul
@ Colón
0–1
L
27 Jun
vs Fenix
3–2
W
21 Jun
@ Rentistas
0–1
L
13 Jun
vs Miramar
1–3
L
7 Jun
@ Tacuarembo
0–1
L
30 May
vs Plaza Colonia
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Oriental – last 6
LDDWDW
5 Jul
vs CA River Plate
1–2
L
28 Jun
vs Colón
1–1
D
20 Jun
@ Fenix
2–2
D
14 Jun
vs Rentistas
3–0
W
8 Jun
@ Miramar
2–2
D
1 Jun
vs Tacuarembo
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Uruguay Montevideo and Oriental.
What is the prediction for Uruguay Montevideo vs Oriental?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Uruguay Montevideo vs Oriental?
On our numbers Uruguay Montevideo have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Oriental 44%.
How many goals will there be in Uruguay Montevideo vs Oriental?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Uruguay Montevideo vs Oriental?
Our predicted score is Uruguay Montevideo 1–1 Oriental, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Uruguay Montevideo vs Oriental?
Uruguay Montevideo vs Oriental (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
