Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.60 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.60Odds
1
Value bet: Mashuk-KMV to win @ 1.89 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMashuk-KMV to win ✗58% · @1.89
Double chanceMashuk-KMV or draw ✓84% · @1.16
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.74
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗22% · fair 4.56
Mashuk-KMV vs Kaluga preview and prediction
The match
Mashuk-KMV host Kaluga in the Second League A Fall Season Gold on Sunday 16 August, with kick-off at 14:30 (WAT) at Central Stadium. Mashuk-KMV are 6th with 21 points from 17 games (in the bottom half), while Kaluga sit 10th on 11 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Mashuk-KMV's last 5: DDDWD Most recently they drew with Astrakhan 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Kaluga's last 5: WDLLD Most recently they beat Iskra Smolensk 5–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 13 June 2026, finished Kaluga 3–0 Mashuk-KMV. Across their last 2 meetings Mashuk-KMV have won 0, Kaluga 1, with 1 draw and 2.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.3 for Mashuk-KMV and 0.5 for Kaluga. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely.
Value angle: Mashuk-KMV to win at 1.89 – 58% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.60, above our fair price of 1.52, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Mashuk-KMV 1–0 Kaluga. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mashuk-KMV58%fair 1.73 · @1.89
Draw26%fair 3.82 · @3.02
Kaluga16%fair 6.22 · @3.95
1.75Expected goals
1.27Mashuk-KMV xG
0.49Kaluga xG
47%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–022%
0–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–18%
2–17%
From our goals model: Mashuk-KMV 1.3 – 0.5 Kaluga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Mashuk-KMV vs Kaluga?
On our numbers Mashuk-KMV have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Kaluga 16%.
How many goals will there be in Mashuk-KMV vs Kaluga?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mashuk-KMV vs Kaluga?
Our predicted score is Mashuk-KMV 1–0 Kaluga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Mashuk-KMV vs Kaluga?
Mashuk-KMV vs Kaluga (Second League A Fall Season Gold) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Central Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
