Value bet: Novosibirsk to win @ 1.86 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNovosibirsk to win ✗60% · @1.86
Double chanceNovosibirsk or draw ✗83% · @1.19
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.80
Novosibirsk vs Rodina Moskva II preview and prediction
The match
The Second League A Fall Season Gold sees Novosibirsk take on Rodina Moskva II on Sunday 2 August, kicking off at 11:00 (WAT) at Stadion Spartak. Novosibirsk are 5th with 22 points from 17 games (in the top half), while Rodina Moskva II sit 2nd on 31 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Novosibirsk's last 5: WWWLD Most recently they beat Kaluga 1–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Rodina Moskva II's last 5: DWWLL Most recently they drew with Dinamo Vladivostok 0–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Novosibirsk arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 17 May 2026, finished Rodina Moskva II 1–1 Novosibirsk. Across their last 2 meetings Novosibirsk have won 1, Rodina Moskva II 0, with 1 draw and 1.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.5 for Novosibirsk and 0.7 for Rodina Moskva II. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 57% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Novosibirsk 60%, draw 23%, Rodina Moskva II 17%.
Safer route: Novosibirsk or draw (83%) at 1.19.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Novosibirsk to win at 1.86 – 60% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.27. Predicted score: Novosibirsk 1–0 Rodina Moskva II. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Novosibirsk60%fair 1.67 · @1.86
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.32
Rodina Moskva II17%fair 5.95 · @3.64
2.19Expected goals
1.54Novosibirsk xG
0.65Rodina Moskva II xG
51%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–013%
1–111%
0–011%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Novosibirsk 1.5 – 0.7 Rodina Moskva II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Novosibirsk vs Rodina Moskva II?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.
Who will win Novosibirsk vs Rodina Moskva II?
On our numbers Novosibirsk have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Rodina Moskva II 17%.
How many goals will there be in Novosibirsk vs Rodina Moskva II?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Novosibirsk vs Rodina Moskva II?
Our predicted score is Novosibirsk 1–0 Rodina Moskva II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Novosibirsk vs Rodina Moskva II?
Novosibirsk vs Rodina Moskva II (Second League A Fall Season Gold) kicks off on Sunday 2 August 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Spartak.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
