Sao Joao del Rei vs Paracatu prediction & analysis
88%
Footrivo pick
Paracatu or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Paracatu to win @ 1.85 – our chance 63% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultParacatu to win ✗63% · @1.85
Double chanceParacatu or draw ✗88% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · fair 1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.26
Sao Joao del Rei vs Paracatu preview and prediction
The match
Sao Joao del Rei host Paracatu in the Mineiro 3 on Friday 9 October, with kick-off at 22:30 (WAT). Sao Joao del Rei are 5th with 3 points from 3 games, while Paracatu sit 1st on 7 points.
Form guide
Sao Joao del Rei's last 3: LLW Most recently they lost to Betim 2 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Paracatu's last 3: WWW Most recently they beat Funorte 3–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 3.3 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Paracatu arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.7 for Sao Joao del Rei and 1.9 for Paracatu. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 44%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sao Joao del Rei 12%, draw 25%, Paracatu 63%.
Safer route: Paracatu or draw (88%) at 1.22.
Value angle: Paracatu to win at 1.85 – 63% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Paracatu or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Sao Joao del Rei 0–1 Paracatu. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sao Joao del Rei12%fair 8.12 · @3.70
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.30
Paracatu63%fair 1.59 · @1.85
2.61Expected goals
0.73Sao Joao del Rei xG
1.88Paracatu xG
44%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–213%
1–110%
1–29%
0–38%
0–07%
From our goals model: Sao Joao del Rei 0.7 – 1.9 Paracatu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Paracatu to win✗
63%
1.59
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Paracatu or draw✗
88%
1.14
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.77
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
–
Half-time result
Paracatu ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Paracatu / FT Paracatu✗
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.26
–
Form
Sao Joao del Rei – last 3
LLW
2 Oct
vs Betim 2
0–1
L
26 Sep
@ Funorte
0–1
L
18 Sep
vs Araxá
2–0
W
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Paracatu – last 3
WWW
3 Oct
vs Funorte
3–0
W
26 Sep
@ Araxá
2–1
W
19 Sep
vs Siderurgica
5–0
W
3.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sao Joao del Rei and Paracatu.
What is the prediction for Sao Joao del Rei vs Paracatu?
Our pick is Paracatu or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Sao Joao del Rei vs Paracatu?
On our numbers Sao Joao del Rei have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Paracatu 63%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Joao del Rei vs Paracatu?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sao Joao del Rei vs Paracatu?
Our predicted score is Sao Joao del Rei 0–1 Paracatu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Sao Joao del Rei vs Paracatu?
Sao Joao del Rei vs Paracatu (Mineiro 3) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
