Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.78 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.78Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultDefensor Sporting to win ✓62% · @1.78
Double chanceDefensor Sporting or draw ✓83% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.33
Defensor Sporting vs Cerro preview and prediction
The match
Defensor Sporting host Cerro in the Primera División Apertura on Monday 3 August, with kick-off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estadio Luis Franzini. Defensor Sporting are 13th with 12 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Cerro sit 9th on 18 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Defensor Sporting's last 5: LDLDD Most recently they lost to Liverpool Montevideo 1–2 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Cerro's last 5: WWLLW Most recently they beat Racing Montevideo 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Cerro arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 5 April 2026, finished Cerro 1–0 Defensor Sporting.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.5 for Defensor Sporting and 0.6 for Cerro. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Safer route: Defensor Sporting or draw (83%) at 1.13.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.10.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Defensor Sporting to win – a 62% chance at odds of 1.78, above our fair price of 1.62, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Defensor Sporting 1–0 Cerro. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Defensor Sporting62%fair 1.62 · @1.78
Draw21%fair 4.66 · @3.20
Cerro17%fair 5.95 · @4.65
2.07Expected goals
1.49Defensor Sporting xG
0.58Cerro xG
51%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–014%
0–013%
1–111%
2–18%
0–17%
From our goals model: Defensor Sporting 1.5 – 0.6 Cerro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Cerro?
Our pick is Defensor Sporting to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.78.
Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Cerro?
On our numbers Defensor Sporting have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Cerro 17%.
How many goals will there be in Defensor Sporting vs Cerro?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Defensor Sporting vs Cerro?
Our predicted score is Defensor Sporting 1–0 Cerro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Defensor Sporting vs Cerro?
Defensor Sporting vs Cerro (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Monday 3 August 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Franzini.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
