Liga De Expansión MX · Mexico · Estadio TlahuicoleTlaxcala vs Piratas prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.73 · Won ✓
Value bet: Piratas to win @ 1.91 – our chance 59% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Tlaxcala 1.1 – 2.0 Piratas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Piratas shade it despite being away from home – 59% to win, against 21% for Tlaxcala.
Tlaxcala have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.5 per game. Piratas have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 3.1 goals (1.1 for Tlaxcala, 2.0 for Piratas). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 1–2 (10%), 0–1 (9%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 62% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.73 is better than our fair price of 1.62, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Piratas to win at 1.91 is our value angle (59% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Piratas to win ✗ | 59% | 1.69 | 1.91 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 80% | 1.24 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 62% | 1.62 | 1.73 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 81% | 1.23 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 60% | 1.68 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 63% | 1.59 | – |
| Half-time result | Piratas ahead at half-time ✓ | 43% | 2.32 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Piratas / FT Piratas ✗ | 37% | 2.70 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 10% | 10.08 | – |
Form
Tlaxcala – last 6
| 4 Oct | @ Monarcas | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | vs Cancún | 4–1 | W |
| 21 Sep | @ Tapatío | 0–4 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs CDS Tampico Madero | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ Durango | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | vs Venados FC | 3–1 | W |
Piratas – last 6
| 4 Oct | vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 4–0 | W |
| 25 Sep | @ Mineros de Zacatecas | 0–3 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs Venados FC | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Sep | @ Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Correcaminos Uat | 4–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | @ Leones Negros UDG | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tlaxcala and Piratas.
Liga De Expansión MX table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CA La Paz | 15 | +18 | 30 |
| 2 |  Leones Negros UDG | 15 | +14 | 30 |
| 3 |  Monarcas | 15 | +7 | 26 |
| 4 |  Piratas | 15 | +12 | 25 |
| 5 |  Cancún | 15 | +10 | 25 |
| 6 |  Venados FC | 15 | +6 | 25 |
| 7 |  Durango | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 8 |  Tlaxcala | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 |  Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 15 | -10 | 22 |
| 10 |  Mineros de Zacatecas | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 11 |  Tapatío | 15 | -3 | 18 |
| 12 |  Correcaminos Uat | 15 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 |  Dorados | 15 | -9 | 16 |
| 14 |  CDS Tampico Madero | 15 | -10 | 15 |
| 15 |  Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 15 | -7 | 14 |
| 16 |  Tepatitlán | 15 | -33 | 7 |
More Liga De Expansión MX predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Tlaxcala vs Piratas?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Tlaxcala vs Piratas?
On our numbers Tlaxcala have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Piratas 59%.
How many goals will there be in Tlaxcala vs Piratas?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
When is Tlaxcala vs Piratas?
Tlaxcala vs Piratas (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Tlahuicole.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.