Liga De Expansión MX · MexicoTepatitlán vs Monarcas prediction & analysis
Monarcas to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.40 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Tepatitlán 1.0 – 2.3 Monarcas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Monarcas travel as clear favourites – 64% to win, against 13% for Tepatitlán.
Tepatitlán have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (2W 0D 4L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 3.2 per game. Monarcas have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. Monarcas come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.3 goals (1.0 for Tepatitlán, 2.3 for Monarcas). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–2 (10%), 0–2 (10%), 1–1 (8%).
In their last 1 meeting, Tepatitlán have won 0, Monarcas have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 5.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Monarcas to win at a 64% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.40 is close to our fair price of 1.56.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Monarcas to win ✗ | 64% | 1.56 | 1.40 |
| Double chance | Monarcas or draw ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.11 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 59% | 1.70 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 65% | 1.55 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 57% | 1.74 | – |
| Half-time result | Monarcas ahead at half-time ✗ | 49% | 2.04 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Monarcas / FT Monarcas ✗ | 44% | 2.29 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 10% | 10.27 | – |
Form
Tepatitlán – last 6
| 3 Oct | vs CDS Tampico Madero | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Mineros de Zacatecas | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sep | @ Venados FC | 0–5 | L |
| 4 Sep | vs Dorados | 1–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | @ Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 0–6 | L |
| 21 Aug | vs Tlaxcala | 3–2 | W |
Monarcas – last 6
| 4 Oct | vs Tlaxcala | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Sep | @ Venados FC | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Leones Negros UDG | 2–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | @ Mineros de Zacatecas | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 4–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | @ Dorados | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 15 Mar 2026 | Monarcas v Tepatitlán | 3–2 |
Liga De Expansión MX table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CA La Paz | 15 | +18 | 30 |
| 2 |  Leones Negros UDG | 15 | +14 | 30 |
| 3 |  Monarcas | 15 | +7 | 26 |
| 4 |  Piratas | 15 | +12 | 25 |
| 5 |  Cancún | 15 | +10 | 25 |
| 6 |  Venados FC | 15 | +6 | 25 |
| 7 |  Durango | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 8 |  Tlaxcala | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 |  Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 15 | -10 | 22 |
| 10 |  Mineros de Zacatecas | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 11 |  Tapatío | 15 | -3 | 18 |
| 12 |  Correcaminos Uat | 15 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 |  Dorados | 15 | -9 | 16 |
| 14 |  CDS Tampico Madero | 15 | -10 | 15 |
| 15 |  Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 15 | -7 | 14 |
| 16 |  Tepatitlán | 15 | -33 | 7 |
More Liga De Expansión MX predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Tepatitlán vs Monarcas?
Our pick is Monarcas to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Tepatitlán vs Monarcas?
On our numbers Tepatitlán have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Monarcas 64%.
How many goals will there be in Tepatitlán vs Monarcas?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
When is Tepatitlán vs Monarcas?
Tepatitlán vs Monarcas (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.