Value bet: Piratas to win @ 2.82 – our chance 38% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCA La Paz to win ✓40% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 11.01
CA La Paz vs Piratas preview and prediction
The match
The Liga De Expansión MX sees CA La Paz take on Piratas on Saturday 15 August, kicking off at 04:00 (WAT) at Estadio Guaycura. CA La Paz are 1st with 30 points from 15 games (top of the table), while Piratas sit 4th on 25 points (in the top four).
Form guide
CA La Paz's last 5: WLLDL Most recently they beat Tepatitlán 5–0 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Piratas's last 3: WWD Most recently they beat Durango 3–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Piratas arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for CA La Paz and 1.3 for Piratas. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: CA La Paz 40%, draw 23%, Piratas 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Piratas to win at 2.82 – 38% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: CA La Paz 1–1 Piratas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
CA La Paz40%fair 2.51 · @2.30
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.55
Piratas38%fair 2.66 · @2.82
2.73Expected goals
1.39CA La Paz xG
1.34Piratas xG
59%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: CA La Paz 1.4 – 1.3 Piratas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CA La Paz to win✓
40%
2.51
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.71
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.92
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.38
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CA La Paz / FT CA La Paz✓
22%
4.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
11.01
–
Form
CA La Paz – last 6
WLLDLL
8 Aug
@ Tepatitlán
5–0
W
1 Aug
vs Durango
0–1
L
26 Jul
@ Monarcas
2–4
L
1 Jul
@ FC Juarez
2–2
D
26 Apr
vs CDS Tampico Madero
1–2
L
23 Apr
@ CDS Tampico Madero
0–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Piratas – last 3
WWD
8 Aug
@ Durango
3–0
W
2 Aug
vs Monarcas
1–0
W
26 Jul
@ CDS Tampico Madero
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between CA La Paz and Piratas.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win CA La Paz vs Piratas?
On our numbers CA La Paz have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Piratas 38%.
How many goals will there be in CA La Paz vs Piratas?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CA La Paz vs Piratas?
Our predicted score is CA La Paz 1–1 Piratas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is CA La Paz vs Piratas?
CA La Paz vs Piratas (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 04:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Guaycura.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
