Liga De Expansión MX · MexicoCorrecaminos Uat vs Tapatío prediction & analysis
Correcaminos Uat or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Correcaminos Uat to win @ 1.90 – our chance 60% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Correcaminos Uat 2.0 – 1.1 Tapatío expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Correcaminos Uat hold the edge on home soil with a 60% chance of winning, against 19% for Tapatío.
Correcaminos Uat have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 2.2 and conceding 2.3 per game. Tapatío have 5 points from their last 6 (1W 2D 3L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 3.1 goals (2.0 for Correcaminos Uat, 1.1 for Tapatío). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10%), 1–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, Correcaminos Uat have won 0, Tapatío have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 4.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Correcaminos Uat or draw at a 81% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.24. For a bigger price, Correcaminos Uat to win at 1.90 is our value angle (60% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Correcaminos Uat to win ✗ | 60% | 1.68 | 1.90 ▲ |
| Double chance | Correcaminos Uat or draw ✗ | 81% | 1.24 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 60% | 1.66 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | 1.25 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 57% | 1.76 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 65% | 1.55 | 1.42 |
| Half-time result | Correcaminos Uat ahead at half-time ✓ | 44% | 2.28 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Correcaminos Uat / FT Correcaminos Uat ✗ | 38% | 2.64 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.06 | – |
Form
Correcaminos Uat – last 6
| 7 Aug | @ Leones Negros UDG | 3–1 | W |
| 1 Aug | vs Tepatitlán | 3–1 | W |
| 25 Jul | @ Mineros de Zacatecas | 3–3 | D |
| 4 Jul | vs Guadalajara Chivas | 0–0 | D |
| 1 Jul | vs Necaxa | 3–6 | L |
| 18 Apr | vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 1–3 | L |
Tapatío – last 6
| 9 Aug | @ Venados FC | 2–3 | L |
| 2 Aug | vs CDS Tampico Madero | 1–0 | W |
| 27 Jul | vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Jul | @ Leon | 2–4 | L |
| 27 Apr | @ Cancún | 0–1 | L |
| 24 Apr | vs Cancún | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 28 Feb 2026 | Correcaminos Uat v Tapatío | 2–2 |
Liga De Expansión MX table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CA La Paz | 15 | +18 | 30 |
| 2 |  Leones Negros UDG | 15 | +14 | 30 |
| 3 |  Monarcas | 15 | +7 | 26 |
| 4 |  Piratas | 15 | +12 | 25 |
| 5 |  Cancún | 15 | +10 | 25 |
| 6 |  Venados FC | 15 | +6 | 25 |
| 7 |  Durango | 15 | +6 | 24 |
| 8 |  Tlaxcala | 15 | +2 | 22 |
| 9 |  Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 15 | -10 | 22 |
| 10 |  Mineros de Zacatecas | 15 | 0 | 18 |
| 11 |  Tapatío | 15 | -3 | 18 |
| 12 |  Correcaminos Uat | 15 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 |  Dorados | 15 | -9 | 16 |
| 14 |  CDS Tampico Madero | 15 | -10 | 15 |
| 15 |  Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 15 | -7 | 14 |
| 16 |  Tepatitlán | 15 | -33 | 7 |
More Liga De Expansión MX predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Correcaminos Uat vs Tapatío?
Our pick is Correcaminos Uat or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Correcaminos Uat vs Tapatío?
On our numbers Correcaminos Uat have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Tapatío 19%.
How many goals will there be in Correcaminos Uat vs Tapatío?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Correcaminos Uat vs Tapatío?
Correcaminos Uat vs Tapatío (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.