Value bet: Monarcas to win @ 3.05 – our chance 44% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +36%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMonarcas to win ✗44% · @3.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.18
Piratas vs Monarcas preview and prediction
The match
Piratas host Monarcas in the Liga De Expansión MX on Sunday 2 August, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT). Piratas are 4th with 25 points from 15 games (in the top four), while Monarcas sit 3rd on 26 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Monarcas's last 5: WDLWL Most recently they beat CA La Paz 4–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.2 for Piratas and 1.5 for Monarcas. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 49%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Piratas 33%, draw 22%, Monarcas 44%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Monarcas to win at 3.05 – 44% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 71% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Piratas 1–1 Monarcas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Piratas33%fair 3.02 · @2.35
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.15
Monarcas44%fair 2.25 · @3.05
2.71Expected goals
1.23Piratas xG
1.48Monarcas xG
49%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
2–17%
0–27%
From our goals model: Piratas 1.2 – 1.5 Monarcas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monarcas to win✗
44%
2.25
3.05 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monarcas / FT Monarcas✗
25%
3.94
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
10.18
–
Form
Piratas – last 1
D
26 Jul
@ CDS Tampico Madero
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Monarcas – last 6
WDLWLL
26 Jul
vs CA La Paz
4–2
W
5 Jul
vs Cruz Azul
3–3
D
20 Jun
@ Necaxa
0–1
L
26 Apr
vs Mineros de Zacatecas
2–0
W
23 Apr
@ Mineros de Zacatecas
0–3
L
20 Apr
@ CDS Tampico Madero
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Piratas and Monarcas.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Piratas vs Monarcas?
On our numbers Piratas have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Monarcas 44%.
How many goals will there be in Piratas vs Monarcas?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Piratas vs Monarcas?
Our predicted score is Piratas 1–1 Monarcas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Piratas vs Monarcas?
Piratas vs Monarcas (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 2 August 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
