Cancún vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca prediction & analysis
87%
Footrivo pick
Cancún or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Cancún to win @ 1.73 – our chance 64% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCancún to win ✓64% · @1.73
Double chanceCancún or draw ✓87% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.32
Cancún vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca preview and prediction
The match
The Liga De Expansión MX sees Cancún take on Alebrijes de Oaxaca on Sunday 20 September, kicking off at 02:00 (WAT). Cancún are 5th with 25 points from 15 games (in the top half), while Alebrijes de Oaxaca sit 9th on 22 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Cancún's last 5: DDWLW Most recently they drew with Dorados 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca's last 5: WLDLW Most recently they beat Durango 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for Cancún and 0.8 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cancún 64%, draw 23%, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 13%.
Safer route: Cancún or draw (87%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Cancún to win at 1.73 – 64% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Cancún or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Cancún 1–0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cancún64%fair 1.57 · @1.73
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @3.50
Alebrijes de Oaxaca13%fair 7.77 · @4.00
2.75Expected goals
1.96Cancún xG
0.79Alebrijes de Oaxaca xG
55%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–06%
From our goals model: Cancún 2.0 – 0.8 Alebrijes de Oaxaca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cancún to win✓
64%
1.57
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Cancún or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Half-time result
Cancún ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cancún / FT Cancún✗
42%
2.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.32
–
Form
Cancún – last 6
DDWLWW
16 Sep
@ Dorados
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ Correcaminos Uat
2–2
D
6 Sep
vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo
6–0
W
28 Aug
vs CA La Paz
1–2
L
23 Aug
@ Piratas
1–0
W
16 Aug
vs Durango
2–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Alebrijes de Oaxaca – last 6
WLDLWW
11 Sep
vs Durango
1–0
W
6 Sep
@ Monarcas
1–4
L
28 Aug
vs Tapatío
1–1
D
23 Aug
@ CDS Tampico Madero
1–2
L
14 Aug
vs Tepatitlán
1–0
W
6 Aug
@ Tlaxcala
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cancún and Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
What is the prediction for Cancún vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Our pick is Cancún or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Cancún vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
On our numbers Cancún have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Alebrijes de Oaxaca 13%.
How many goals will there be in Cancún vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cancún vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Our predicted score is Cancún 1–0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Cancún vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Cancún vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
