Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG prediction & analysis
88%
Footrivo pick
Monarcas or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Monarcas to win @ 1.67 – our chance 64% vs 60% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMonarcas to win ✓64% · @1.67
Double chanceMonarcas or draw ✓88% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.60
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗67% · fair 1.50
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.40
Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG preview and prediction
The match
Monarcas host Leones Negros UDG in the Liga De Expansión MX on Sunday 20 September, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT) at Estadio Morelos. Monarcas are 3rd with 26 points from 15 games (in the top four), while Leones Negros UDG sit 2nd on 30 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Monarcas's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Mineros de Zacatecas 1–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Leones Negros UDG's last 5: DWDWW Most recently they drew with CA La Paz 2–2 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Monarcas arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 5 April 2026, finished Leones Negros UDG 2–0 Monarcas.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 2.4 for Monarcas and 1.0 for Leones Negros UDG. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Monarcas to win at 1.67 – 64% on our numbers against 60% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Monarcas or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Monarcas 2–1 Leones Negros UDG. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Monarcas64%fair 1.55 · @1.67
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.80
Leones Negros UDG12%fair 8.15 · @4.00
3.44Expected goals
2.39Monarcas xG
1.05Leones Negros UDG xG
62%Both score
67%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–09%
1–18%
1–08%
3–18%
3–07%
From our goals model: Monarcas 2.4 – 1.0 Leones Negros UDG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG?
Our pick is Monarcas or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG?
On our numbers Monarcas have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Leones Negros UDG 12%.
How many goals will there be in Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG?
Our predicted score is Monarcas 2–1 Leones Negros UDG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG?
Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Morelos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
