Leones Negros UDG vs CA La Paz prediction & analysis

Very little separates Leones Negros UDG and CA La Paz on our numbers – 40% for the home side, 37% for the visitors and 22% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.

Leones Negros UDG have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.0 per game. CA La Paz have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 2.2 scored and 0.5 conceded.

We expect around 3.4 goals (1.7 for Leones Negros UDG, 1.6 for CA La Paz). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (8%), 1–2 (8%).

In their last 1 meeting, Leones Negros UDG have won 0, CA La Paz have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Both teams to score at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.53 is close to our fair price of 1.54. For a bigger price, CA La Paz to win at 3.10 is our value angle (37% on our numbers).